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Future of Sports Commentary

Last night I tuned in to a great NBA matchup, the Milwaukee Bucks against the Boston Celtics. I watched the broadcast on TNT but my TV was muted. Instead, I had my tablet open as two guys on their couch did commentary for the game.

I think this is the future of sports coverage.

Danny LeRoux and Nate Duncan, broadcasting from their couch

Well maybe not exactly those two guys on their couch. But I think we will see more options for consumers. Last night I tuned in to the “#NBACast” show by Nate Duncan and Danny LeRoux. They also run my favorite NBA podcast Dunc’d On.

There are two categories of NBA games, national broadcasts and local broadcasts. National broadcasts are those on networks like ESPN, TNT, or ABC. There is one neutral commentating crew. Local broadcasts have two separate broadcasts of the game by each team’s crew. League Pass subscribers like me can still tune in to these. 

The announcers for national broadcasts are unbiased and more ‘prestigious’ in their field. As a pretty extreme NBA fan I find their commentary bland. Some announcers like Jeff Van Gundy often go on rants unrelated to the game they are announcing. This actually makes some sense. The average NBA fan follows their team and probably tunes in to one national broadcast a week. That game is their weekly lens into the NBA at large so they actually find some value in Van Gundy complaining about LeBron’s defense during a Toronto / Philadelphia game.

But it drives me crazy when I’m trying to watch a game and the announcers are on a completely unrelated rant. I know I’m not alone. Cue the “#NBACast”. It fits my style because they approach the game from an analytics mindset. They also take viewer questions using the chat feature of their online broadcast. 

Anyone can tune in to this show for free but you can subscribe to their Patreon to financially support them. I have been contributing $7 per month for a few years now. Between their show and podcast, I get well over 21 hours of content a month. I get more than $0.33 per hour of new NBA information. I particularly enjoy their summaries of games I missed (especially West Coast games that happen on weeknights) and their “15 in 60” segments throughout the season where they quickly run through the status of each team.

Duncan and LeRoux certainly aren’t perfect. Lots of people can’t stand their style and even as a big fan I have some complaints with them. But I enjoy having the opportunity to tune in to their commentary of an NBA game instead of listening to Reggie Miller or Mark Jackson. I hope we all get more options for how we consume our content.

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Predicting the 2018-19 NBA Season

Just in time for the NBA season to kick off tomorrow, I have projected win totals for each team. Below you will find my predictions for each team alongside latest Vegas odds. I’ve also included the difference between my predictions and the Vegas line, as well as the absolute value of the differences. Below the tables you’ll find my team by team thoughts. Here’s to hoping I do better than last season, with a median difference between prediction and actual wins of 6.

Western Conference

  1. Golden State Warriors (55) I’m nervous with how low this prediction is, but there are two important factors to consider. First, the West is going to be a bloodbath this season. Only the Kings are outright terrible. Second, we have seen this team prioritize the postseason which makes sense given the injury history of stars like Curry and Durant.
  2. Houston Rockets (53) Their roster got a bit weaker. Also, last year they were gunning to show their dominance and win Harden an MVP. This year, look for them to also prioritize postseason health.
  3. Utah Jazz (49) The Jazz looked great last postseason and sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell should only improve. 
  4. San Antonio Spurs (48) Yes, I factored in Dejounte Murray’s season-ending injury. The question for the Spurs is what can they get out of DeMar DeRozan? 
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder (47) Simply getting rid of Carmelo should be a net positive for the Thunder. However, they have a few reasons for concern. First, Russell Westbrook relies heavily on athleticism but is turning 30 next month. Second, Andre Roberson has apparently suffered a setback in his injury recovery. Having Roberson on the court is essential to their defense which is essential to the Thunder being an elite team. 
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves (45) I took Jimmy Butler off the Timberwolves but I did not put him on another team, which will almost certainly create problems at season’s end. I also gave Wiggins a small boost to his production in the season before Butler came to Minnesota.
  7. Denver Nuggets (44) This is a nice young team with plenty of players poised to improve: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris. Having Paul Millsap back from injury will be a nice boost to possibly get them into the playoffs this year. If Jokic does not improve on defense, they could be in trouble.
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (43) The Pelicans looked phenomenal in the playoffs against the Trailblazers. They are basically bringing back that squad with an added Julius Randle, who should be a great addition.
  9. Los Angeles Lakers (42) Yes, right now I have a LeBron team missing the playoffs. By a game.  I could see them as high as fourth if you look at how tight these win projections are. I think we’re all curious how this team will look given how differently they are built than the LeBron Cavaliers. I think their recent pickups of Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, and Javale McGee are suspect.
  10. Portland Trailblazers (41) I think Damian Lillard had a phenomenal season but it was also a career year. Look for him to regress a bit without any strong steps forward from the rest of this squad.
  11. Dallas Mavericks (38) Luca Doncic is going to be an NBA star, but this team is a few years away from competing. 
  12. Los Angeles Clippers (34) I’m still not sure how the Clippers performed as well as did last season and it’s possible I’m missing something here. But I don’t think this team is quite good enough to compete in an excellent Western Conference. 
  13. Memphis Grizzlies (33) The Grizzlies seem to think they’ll be competitive with Mike Conley and Marc Gasol healthy but I’m not so sure. My money is on this team struggling and then the front office breaks things up.
  14. Phoenix Suns (26) Another team operating under delusions of grandeur, they have some nice young players but will struggle for a few more seasons. Look for them to shoot themselves in the foot by making an ill-advised trade for a veteran point guard.
  15. Sacramento Kings (25) The Kings are bad. Marvin Bagley might be a good NBA player but I doubt he’ll be better than Doncic.

Eastern Conference

  1. Toronto Raptors (62) Take a 59 win team, swap out DeMar DeRozan for Kawhi Leonard, and remove LeBron from the conference. That sounds like 3 more wins to me. If Leonard’s injury is not resolved this won’t happen, but all signs indicate he will be ready to go this week. 
  2. Boston Celtics (55) One of my biggest problems last season was accurately predicting the performance of young players improving their skills. I attempted to tackle that with these young Celtics stars but I will not be shocked if they outperform this projection.
  3. Philadelphia 76ers (54) See my above comment given the number of young stars in Philadelphia. I’m not expecting great things from Markelle Fultz although I think he’ll be a positive contributor. It’s always fair to question the health of Joel Embiid, too.
  4. Indiana Pacers (51) So long as Victor Oladipo doesn’t serously regress, this team should be real good. Tyreke Evans is a great addition for them.
  5. Milwaukee Bucks (50) I am really struggling with how to appropriately factor in the huge coaching upgrade from Jason Kidd to Mike Budenholzer. Based on preseason games, which we should take with a grain of salt, Giannis Antetokounmpo looks like a leading MVP candidate.
  6. Washington Wizards (48) If there is one thing I feel confident predicting, it is that the Wizards will have locker room troubles. We have seen it before from teams lead by John Wall and it is basically guarantee when Dwight Howard comes to town. I’m curious to see how Thomas Satoransky compared to last year as a fill-in starter when Wall was injured. 
  7. Miami Heat (43) I am tempted to project the Heat trading for Jimmy Butler but that’s not looking like a done deal. The Heat look stuck in just-above-mediocrity. They have lots of good players, but not a single very good one. 
  8. Brooklyn Nets (39) I am feeling a bit uneasy about how I have the Nets. But it’s worth considering how most analysts love the Nets style, particularly their shooting profile, they just have lacked the talent to date. In a weak Eastern Conference, they have a chance to be competitive. 
  9. Detroit Pistons (35) Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin looked surprisingly good on the court together. But its still not a very effective roster makeup and they’re going to struggle to score. I’m not giving a boost for regular season master coach Dwayne Casey, who could push them at least into the playoffs.
  10. Charlotte Hornets (35) I want to see Kemba Walker on a roster where the second best player is better than Jeremy Lamb! 
  11. Cleveland Cavaliers (30) I don’t see how Kevin Love is a successful first option in today’s NBA. Minnesota Kevin Love was bigger and able to bully guys around in the post. After getting into shape to be a corner 3 threat for LeBron, this is going to be a rough adjustment. They also like a decent point guard which has a multiplying negative effect.
  12. Orlando Magic (27) The Magic are struggling. Who will win games for them? D.J. Augustin? Nikola Vucevic? They’ve got Aaron Gordon I guess. Oh and this factors in Mo Bamba as a decent rookie.
  13. Chicago Bulls (27) The Bulls have some reasons for optimism, just a few years into the future. They have made a number of poor decisions recently, such as picking up Jabari Parker and signing Zach Lavine for too much money.
  14. New York Knicks (27) I would have them a bit higher if Kristaps Porzingis was healthy. Until then, they’ll be relying on Enes Kanter (who looked surprisingly good last season) and Tim Hardaway Jr. Just not good enough. 
  15. Atlanta Hawks (25) Trae Young will likely have a handful of games where he goes crazy but for the most part he will struggle. I have John Collins and Alex Len as their best players. Yeah, they are going to be bad.

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Revisiting 2017-2018 NBA Predictions

Around this time last year, I attempted to predict how many games each NBA team would win. I am hoping to do the same this year but before I do so I want to evaluate my predictions from last year. My model was primarily built using previous season win shares. One consistent flaw I found in my predictions was that I tended to underestimate the performance of team with promising young players. This makes sense because young players have the greatest potential to improve. A few other big misses were due to injuries, especially teams that choose to tank* after a star player was injured.

The number after each team is how the team fared compared to my prediction. For example, the Golden State Warriors won 9 fewer games than I predicted, 58 as compared to 67.

Golden State Warriors (-9) I don’t feel too bad about missing on this one. I think the Warriors could have won a handful more games, but they took their foot off the gas pedal to prioritize the playoffs. Given how the Rockets won more games but Chris Paul got hurt in the Western Conference finals, I can’t criticize that strategy.

Cleveland Cavaliers (-12) This prediction looks awful in retrospect. I did not expect much drop off from Isaiah Thomas but that was clearly a mistake. Not only did he miss much of the season recovering from injury, when he did return he was a much worse player. 

Minnesota Timberwolves (-13) I noted at the time this was probably showing a flaw in my model and I think that’s clear as day now. Andrew Wiggins regressed, which is a worrying sign that he played worse alongside Jimmy Butler. While Jeff Teague had a worse season than I expected, I think that was on me more than Teague. His year with Indiana the season before was clearly an aberration. For veteran players, my model could be improved by moving to a multi-year win shares average.

Houston Rockets (+2) Their big move was adding Chris Paul and he added about as much value as I expected. The question was would Harden & Paul be able to coexist without dropping off and it looks like they actually improved their individual production a bit. I wonder how much of this is due to their strategy of successfully playing lots of isolation basketball.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-5) This was an alright prediction. I thought it was the Knicks holding Carmelo back over the past few years, but he was a net negative even on the Thunder. I expect the Thunder to be a few games better with him off the roster this year.

San Antonio Spurs (-3) While my prediction looks close here, I’m shocked. My prediction certainly did not account for Kawhi Leonard missing most of the season. Where did they make up the production? A better season for LaMarcus Aldridge as well as a breakout year for Kyle Anderson. It also helps they continue to be the Spurs and put out the 3rd best defense in the league.

Washington Wizards (-5) I initially guessed I overestimated wins for the Wizards due to John Wall’s injury but they played fine without him. It was actually Marcin Gortat who under performed most severely and Bradley Beal was a bit worse than I expected.

Toronto Raptors (+11) One of many underestimates where I did not properly account for strong contributions from young players. For the Raptors that was Jakob Poeltl, Pascal Siakam, and Fred VanVleet.

Boston Celtics (+7) The accuracy of my prediction here is similar to the Raptors (underestimated young talent) and the Spurs (worse than it looks considering Gordon Hayward was hurt all season). The young players I underestimated the most were Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier, and Jaylen Brown. Look for those players to get even better next year and they’ll add Hayward back in.

Denver Nuggets (-1) Nearly perfect!

Utah Jazz (+5) The main variable I missed here was Donovan Mitchell. I expected him to be your average rookie guard which is a slight negative but he was phenomenal for Utah.

Charlotte Hornets (-7) Dwight Howard was a disaster for the Hornets. I’ll need to keep an eye out for players who put up big stats in bad situations, like Howard did in the previous season.

Miami Heat (+1) Nearly perfect!

New Orleans Pelicans (+6) Two things happened here. First, the pairing of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins worked out better than I expected (and the Pelicans’ pickup of Nikola Mirotic when Cousins tore his Achilles tendon worked out nicely). Second, I did not factor in Jrue Holiday missing most of the previous season and he had a great bounce back year.

Milwaukee Bucks (+3) I had high expectations for Giannis Antetokounmpo which he met, but it was the mid-season trade for Eric Bledsoe that improved this team beyond my expectations. 

Los Angeles Clippers (+4) There was no clear pattern to my under estimation here. As far as I can tell, Doc Rivers did a fine job coaching this team and getting a little bit more than expected out of each player.

New York Knicks (-8) The Knicks were exactly on pace to win my predicted 37 games until star Kristaps Porzingis tore his ACL on February 6th. After that, the Knicks accepted their fate and attempted to make a late entry into the tankathon.

Dallas Mavericks (-12) While I expected the Mavericks to be a middle of the road team, instead they embraced tanking to the fullest extent. This made it easy to play a rookie at point guard, always a losing option, and to not be too torn over the loss to injury of Seth Curry. 

Philadelphia 76ers (+17) This was my worst prediction (Chris Freiman if you’re reading this, you were right!) They had a few things going for them. First, Ben Simmons was a massive value-add player for them when merely being positive is an accomplishment for a rookie. Second, Joel Embiid played many more games than I expected. Third, some other young players like Dario Saric and Robert Covington took nice steps forward. Fourth, in a similar fashion to the Clippers, essentially everybody on this roster had a slightly better season than my model expected. Credit Brett Brown for that one. 

Portland Trailblazers (+14) I thought Evan Turner would be a negative for this team but he was (barely) a positive contributor. I thought Damian Lillard would be really, really good but he was really, really, really good. Ed Davis took a much larger step forward than I expected and Jusuf Nurkic seems to fit in much better in Portland than he did in Denver.

Detroit Pistons (+5) When the Pistons traded for Blake Griffin, it gave them a boost in the short term. They did a little bit better than expected but it still was not enough to make the playoffs. How much will the Griffin trade hurt them in the long term? 

Indiana Pacers (+15) I completely missed on this prediction but so did everybody else watching the NBA. The big story here was Victor Oladipio’s meteoric rise from alright backup in OKC to all-star in Indiana.

Memphis Grizzlies (-10) The Grizzlies’ season was similar to that of the Knicks. When star Mike Conley got hurt early in the season it became clear the team needed to tank. Conley played so few games I can’t really extrapolate based on the time he was healthy.

Orlando Magic (-6) This was a surprise for me: my model had very high expectations for Mo Speights. He had a steep drop off from one of his best seasons ever last year in Los Angeles. The Magic, unsurprisingly, were also tankathon competitors. 

Phoenix Suns (-8) I’m not too upset about missing on a team that won the tankathon, but I will note that trading Eric “I Dont wanna be here” Bledsoe was a significant contributing factor.

Atlanta Hawks (-3) The Hawks were bad, as expected.

Brooklyn Nets (+2) The Nets were bad, as expected.

Sacramento Kings (+2) The Kings were bad, as expected.

Chicago Bulls (+3) The Bulls were bad, as expected.

Los Angeles Lakers (+12) To close out this analysis, I really need to do a better job of projecting youth-heavy teams (see also 76ers, Raptors, Celtics). Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart were much better than I expected. An interesting note is that I have Julius Randle as their most impactful player last year but they let him leave for New Orleans.
*If you are you are reading this but don’t follow the NBA closely, “tankathon” refers to how many NBA teams “tank” (not sure where the term came from, but it means purposefully put out a poor team to work towards a losing record). So many teams were doing this last season in the hopes of getting a better draft pick that it became a bit of a “tankathon”, a contest to see who could tank the strongest.
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NBA game log tool online!

Last week I wrote about a few projects I want to tackle in my spare time. Friday night I started work on an NBA game log tool. Last night, I successfully deployed my initial app to Heroku! You can check it out here.

The goal of this tool is to easily log and recall notes about NBA teams and players. As I wrote previously, I think the “eye test” of watching games is just as important as studying player statistics. To use the eye test effectively I think you need to keep notes as systematized as possible.

When you log in, you see all existing notes. You can add an entry for a game you watched which includes the teams playing, the date, how much of the game you watched, and your notes on the game. Log entries can be edited or deleted. There is also a functioning registration and login system for users.

I have a long list of features to keep adding, here are my top priorities:

  1. Differentiate notes of different users
  2. Search notes for a specific team
  3. Associate notes with specific players
  4. Better visual layout
  5. Possibly, related Android and iOS apps
  6. A snappier name (NBAeyeTest?)
For now, I’m thrilled to say this project is already online! This is my most successful javascript project to date. I built this app using the MEAN stack: MongoDB, Express, Angular, and Node. This is also my first time using Heroku. 
Again, if you are interested, please check it out here. I’m aware of a few bugs, in particular the footer doesn’t always load properly. Please let me know what other bugs you run into! 
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Projects

Here are some projects I’m currently working on and/or thinking about kickstarting:
A computer version of the Parker Brothers World Flag Game About The United Nations. This is a classic game for the Needham family, especially at our cottage. I’m working on this game as a chance to practice the Angular framework and possibly the full MEAN stack. I wanted to use a board game that, as far as I know, has not been digitized before.

An NBA game log tool. I watch a lot of the NBA and I try to go beyond watching solely the best teams. Two seasons ago I used a Google Sheet to track what games I watched to ensure I was getting a decent spread of all 30 teams. I want to make a tool to easily log which games I watch, how much of a game I watch, and my notes on what I observe. Additional features would include tagging and looking up notes based on individual players as well as a login system for multiple users. My instinct is to make this with the Flask Python framework.

An NBA lineup quick view tool. The official NBA website has a great tool for analyzing different lineups. I want to make a handy reference where people can quickly see the best and worst lineups in the league and for each team on the basis of offensive success, defensive success, and net success. You could in theory do this with the NBA.com site, but it requires a number of steps. I want to create a website that has this data already prepared for you. This would likely be a Flask project as well.

Reach out to Scott Sumner and discuss building a cryptocurrency linked to NGDP as he proposed here. The step I need to take between here and now is building a just-for-fun cryptocurrency as proof of competency.

Calculate which NBA player had the highest game score against each NBA team last season. I did this for the 2016-2017 season.
Track how accurate Pythagorean win projections were throughout the previous NBA season. This was my original goal in starting a weekly NBA blog. I have the data ready to analyze, I just haven’t followed through on it yet!

If you read this post and are interested in collaborating on any of these projects, email me! 

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Minnesota Timberwolves & poor management

The biggest story in the NBA is the broken relationship between Jimmy Butler and the Minnesota Timberwolves. While I don’t have enough information to truly know what is going on, from the outside it seems they are suffering from a failure of management. I see two clear problems:
  1. They gave Tom Thibodeau the foolish Coach & General Manager dual role. Setting aside whether these two workloads are too much for one person to accomplish effectively, they are somewhat at odds. Coaches should focus on making the most of a given season by winning each and every game possible. General managers should focus on maximizing the team in a longer time horizon. General managers can make smart decisions to prioritize the current season if it maximizes their long term overall. We have seen time and time again that combining these two roles ends in failure as franchises fail to manage their assets properly. 
  2. Owner Glen Taylor has been interfering with decisions to be made by the basketball operations team. I don’t know much about Taylor and he is probably smarter than I am. But I doubt he knows more about basketball than Thibodeau. The Timberwolves recently offered Andrew Wiggins, their third-best player, an overpayment of a five-year $150 million contract. While most NBA analysts agree this was a poor decision (Wiggins has had a negative Value Over Replacement Player in each of his four NBA seasons) it was Taylor who pushed this contract after asking Wiggins to promise to get better. Now, despite Thibodeau refusing to trade Butler, Taylor is pushing to make a trade. I suspect Thibodeau understands there is not a trade to be made that makes basketball sense for the Timberwolves while Taylor is reacting emotionally to Butler’s negative attitude. This is understandable but ultimately unwise. And if I were a Timberwolves fan I would be furious because it was the overpayment to Wiggins that likely started this rift, given Butler has said the dispute is over finances.
The Timberwolves will likely trade Butler for a poor return. The only other possibility is to not trade him and he remains on the team, unhappy, adding further friction to the locker room. While Butler is now clearly a problem, their woes stem from a failure of management.
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Why I’m Bullish on the NBA

Growing up, I played a number of sports but I was best at football. Football was easily my favorite sport a few years ago. In 2010 two things happened: I stopped playing football (because I graduated high school) and I became interested in the NBA.

Michael Jordan’s last season with the Bulls ended when I was 7. I remember that era, but just barely. While I played basketball for many of the years I was playing football I did not find the NBA very interesting.

When I started to gain interest in the NBA in 2010, not only were my hometown Bulls good again (lead by local kid Derrick Rose) but the league was fun to watch. Since then I have watched more and more of the NBA but less and less of the NFL. I’m not sure when the breaking point was, but basketball is unquestionably my favorite sport.

Here is why I’m bullish on the future of the NBA. Some are personal preference, some are just reasons to believe the league will succeed:

  • Personalities. NFL teams have around 50 players on their roster with 22 starters. The NBA have 15 man rosters with 5 starters. With fewer players on the playing field, each player becomes more important. It also becomes easier to follow the different players, their unique qualities, and their relationships with one another. 
  • Storylines. Check out this Slate article from the crazy stories of just last season. The #1 overall pick forgot how to shoot. Players confronting the opposing team (and former teammates) in their locker rooms after a game. A player tweeting out “I Dont wanna be here”. A player got suspended for throwing soup at an assistant coach. Someone on the internet figures out a general manager’s wife was using burner accounts to leak confidential information. Tell me, what other league has this many crazy stories?!
  • Player retention. The NBA has shaped their collective bargaining agreement to allow teams to retain players for the long haul. I’m not a huge fan of this personally, but it helps smaller market teams stay competitive. This improves league balance and national fan engagement.
  • International growth. NBA fandom in China skyrocketed when Yao Ming was a star for the Houston Rockets. There are a huge number of top NBA stars from abroad: Greek Giannis Anteokounmpo, Australian Kyrie Irving, Cameroonian Joel Embiid, Serbian Nikola Jokic, Latvian Kristaps Porzingas are all top 25 players. Interest in the NBA around the globe is only going to go up as more and more international players gain stature in the association.
  • Safety. I still love football, but at the end of the day basketball is clearly safer. This allows players to play longer, have healthier retirements, and encourages more kids to play. 
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NBA Players To Watch

We are less than two weeks away from the 2015-2016 NBA season! I think last season went down as one of the best NBA seasons of all time, certainly the best in my young memory. While this season will almost certainly be less exciting than last year, there’s a number of storylines, teams, and players to keep an eye on. Here are the Top 10 players I’m excited to watch this season. 
10: Kevin Durant I wouldn’t say I’m actually excited to watch Kevin Durant play for the Warriors, but I’m certainly curious to see how it goes. One thing we have learned about KD from this offseason is that he’s happy for things to be easy for him, so there is the possibility he has a personal dropoff and allows those around him to carry the load this season. But more than likely, the Warriors will torch the league even more than they did than last season.

9: Giannis Antetokounmpo The 6’11” Greek Freak will be playing Point Guard this season. The Bucks will likely struggle to even break .500, especially with Middleton hurt, but the Point Giannis experiment will be fun to watch. At just 21 years old, Giannis has as much potential as anyone in the league to win MVP in five years (around the age Durant was in his MVP season). 
8:  Nikola Jokic My description is Jokic is a lot like his game, short and sweet: he plays a quiet game but no big man passes like Jokic. 
7: E’Twaun Moore I have been of E’Twaun’s since he played for Purdue from 2007 to 2011. After a breakout year for my Bulls in his fifth year in the NBA, Moore landed a $34m contract with the Pelicans. While I’m sad to see him leave Chicago, I hope to see him have an even bigger year with a bigger role.
6: Anthony Davis Another contender for possible MVP winner in the next few years, Davis is the best all-around big man in basketball. Against the Pistons back in February Davis had 59 points, 20 rebounds, and 4 assists for the fourth-highest game score in regular season history. Yeah, this guy is worth watching. 
5: Joel Embiid After being drafted third overall in 2014 by the 76ers, Joel “The Process” Embiid is now recovered from a broken foot bone. Based on his preseason footage, he has the potential to go down as an all-time great player. Three things to watch with Embiid: How well does he develop as a player (less turnovers, smarter post play, does he become a real perimeter threat)? What effect does playing for Philadelphia have on his development in terms of his skills and mindset? Will injuries continue to plague him as has happened to so many other promising front court players? 
4: Karl-Anthony Towns The reigning Rookie of the Year, Towns and the Timberwolves will likely take a big step forward under the direction of Coach Tom Thibodeau. Towns and teammate Andrew Wiggins (his predecessor as Rookie of the Year) form an exciting core that could take the Western Conference by storm if the current Warriors core disassembles in the next few seasons.
3: Denzel Valentine Naturally I’m excited to watch a former star for my Michigan State Spartans drafted in the first round by my Chicago Bulls. Valentine has looked alright in summer league and preseason, getting to the rim at a decent rate but showing weaknesses defensively. It remains to be seen how the Bulls will utilize Valentine. Will he be a backup ballhandler when Rondo and Wade are on the bench? Or will he come in to provide outside scoring for the perimeter-challenged Rondo/Wade/Butler trio, considering he was a 44% 3-point shooter last season?
2: James Harden I think Harden is the most dominant offensive player in the NBA, even more so than Curry. He gets a bad rap for his poor defensive effort but I can’t blame a guy who has to carry nearly the entire offensive load for his team night in and night out. With Harden officially taking on more of a Point Guard role and the Rockets bringing in Coach Mike D’Antoni, an offensive juggernaut who can take Harden to another level, he should be a a highlight machine. This Rockets team will try to answer the question: How successful can you be as an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team?
1: Russell Westbrook Hustle Bestbrook. Muscle Chestbrook. Knuckle Westbrick. Westbrook is the most exciting basketball player to watch because he gives 200% on every play, every night. But it isn’t always roses with Westbrook. He has a habit of making unwise gambles defensively or chucking up bad shots to try and take over a game. Live by the Russ, die by the Russ. After this offseason, I hope Billy Donavon can channel Westbrook’s passion towards an MVP season with the Thunder contending come the post-season. Regardless of how their season goes, Russ will be must-see TV this year. 
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2016 NBA Playoff Predictions

Wow! The 2015-2016 NBA regular season came to a conclusion last night in spectacular fashion. Kobe Bryant ended his career by scoring 60 points and willing the Lakers to victory over the Jazz. Meanwhile, Steph Curry hit his 402nd 3-point shot as the Golden State Warriors became the first NBA team to win 73 regular season games. This was the perfect finale to a great NBA regular season. Even though my Chicago Bulls are eliminated (or maybe because of it, freeing me up to root for whomever I please) I am excited for the playoffs. Here’s the playoff picture and my predictions:

Round 1
Western Conference
Golden State Warriors defeat Houston Rockets (4-0). The Rockets have no answer defensively for the Warriors’ historic offensive attack. While James Harden could conceivably score his way to one victory if the Splash Brothers have an off night, I wouldn’t count on it.
Los Angeles Clippers lose to Portland Trail Blazers (4-2). My “upset” pick in the West. In a league that increasingly values versatility, the Clippers embody comparative advantage. Paul passes, Redick shoots from outside, Griffin scores from inside, and Jordan rebounds. This won’t get it done against the Trailblazers, whose rising stars Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum look increasingly in sync.
Oklahoma City Thunder defeat Dallas Mavericks (4-0). The Thunder’s biggest challenge in the playoffs will be avoiding late-game collapses. Luckily for them, this Mavericks team probably won’t be able to keep up with the Thunder through the first three quarters.
San Antonio Spurs defeat Memphis Grizzlies (4-0). This is the most lopsided match-up in the West. The Spurs will be able to defensively lock down what little offensive firepower the Grizzlies have without much trouble.

Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers defeat Detroit Pistons (4-1). The Cavaliers don’t look very impressive for a top team outside of LeBron. But Playoff LeBron is here and he is out to dominate. The Pistons will pick up one at home in a game where LeBron clunks up too many jumpshots but that’s all they will get.
Atlanta Hawks defeat Boston Celtics (4-3). This should be the tightest first round series of the playoffs. For me this is essentially a toss-up, and I’m not sure I can even give Atlanta and edge for home court advantage given the likely energy levels in Philips and TD Garden. I don’t think the Celtics have a clear answer for Paul Millsap and Al Horford, but I’m anxious to see how Brad Stevens gameplans against them.
Miami Heat defeat Charlotte Hornets (4-1). No pun intended, the Heat are the hottest team in the East. Their recent acquisition of Joe Johnson looks like the move of the season. Jeremy Lin will have one of his great bench performances in the Hornets’ lone win.
Toronto Raptors defeat Indiana Pacers (4-0). This series is easy to write off because the Pacers just aren’t very good. But I’ll take this opportunity to say the Raptors are an enigma to me. They play with the second-slowest pace in the NBA and are middle of the pack in scoring.

Round 2
Western Conference
Golden State Warriors defeat Portland Trail Blazers (4-1). Obviously, the Warriors are the team to beat. But you need exceptional defense to beat Golden State and the Trail Blazers are lackluster on defense.
San Antonio Spurs defeat Oklahoma City Thunder (4-2). What a great match-up in the conference semi-finals. I will be rooting for Oklahoma City but they’re going to have an uphill battle. They will need their supporting cast to play above much better than they’ve shown if they are going to beat the Spurs. Also count on Westbrook for a boneheaded play in crunch time for a close loss.

Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers defeat Atlanta Hawks (4-0). Playoff LeBron will dominate a solid but average Hawks squad, aided by Kevin Love’s ability to stretch Atlanta’s strong front court out of the paint.
Toronto Raptors lose to Miami Heat (4-2). Here’s my big upset pick of the East. Again, I think the Heat are red hot and I just don’t understand the Raptors. The Heat will bring too much between Wade and Johnson’s scoring as well as Whiteside’s defense for the Raptors to handle.

Round 3
Western Conference
Golden State Warriors defeat San Antonio Spurs (4-2). This will be an epic battle. The Spurs have shown they can lock up Steph Curry from outside. I think they’ll do that again while at home, but that level of defense against Steph just isn’t sustainable for a full series. Role players for the Warriors like Iguodala, Speights, and Livingston will also come up big in this series.

Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers defeat Miami Heat (4-3). Oh man, what a match-up this will be if it happens. The Heat go from the villains of the league to America’s Team against LeBron. This would be straight out of a WWE plot and I really hope it happens. The Heat will keep it close but they don’t have the ability to truly stop LeBron in seven games.

Finals
Golden State Warriors defeat Cleveland Cavaliers (4-1). Cleveland will bring more to the table this year if their squad remains healthy, but Golden State is playing at an even higher level of greatness than they did last year. Draymond Green will give the Cavaliers fits on offense and defense while Kevin Love will choke on the big stage. Count on Tyronn Lue to make a big mistake and/or get told what to do by LeBron in a big moment during this series.