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Predicting the 2018-19 NBA Season

Just in time for the NBA season to kick off tomorrow, I have projected win totals for each team. Below you will find my predictions for each team alongside latest Vegas odds. I’ve also included the difference between my predictions and the Vegas line, as well as the absolute value of the differences. Below the tables you’ll find my team by team thoughts. Here’s to hoping I do better than last season, with a median difference between prediction and actual wins of 6.

Western Conference

  1. Golden State Warriors (55) I’m nervous with how low this prediction is, but there are two important factors to consider. First, the West is going to be a bloodbath this season. Only the Kings are outright terrible. Second, we have seen this team prioritize the postseason which makes sense given the injury history of stars like Curry and Durant.
  2. Houston Rockets (53) Their roster got a bit weaker. Also, last year they were gunning to show their dominance and win Harden an MVP. This year, look for them to also prioritize postseason health.
  3. Utah Jazz (49) The Jazz looked great last postseason and sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell should only improve. 
  4. San Antonio Spurs (48) Yes, I factored in Dejounte Murray’s season-ending injury. The question for the Spurs is what can they get out of DeMar DeRozan? 
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder (47) Simply getting rid of Carmelo should be a net positive for the Thunder. However, they have a few reasons for concern. First, Russell Westbrook relies heavily on athleticism but is turning 30 next month. Second, Andre Roberson has apparently suffered a setback in his injury recovery. Having Roberson on the court is essential to their defense which is essential to the Thunder being an elite team. 
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves (45) I took Jimmy Butler off the Timberwolves but I did not put him on another team, which will almost certainly create problems at season’s end. I also gave Wiggins a small boost to his production in the season before Butler came to Minnesota.
  7. Denver Nuggets (44) This is a nice young team with plenty of players poised to improve: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris. Having Paul Millsap back from injury will be a nice boost to possibly get them into the playoffs this year. If Jokic does not improve on defense, they could be in trouble.
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (43) The Pelicans looked phenomenal in the playoffs against the Trailblazers. They are basically bringing back that squad with an added Julius Randle, who should be a great addition.
  9. Los Angeles Lakers (42) Yes, right now I have a LeBron team missing the playoffs. By a game.  I could see them as high as fourth if you look at how tight these win projections are. I think we’re all curious how this team will look given how differently they are built than the LeBron Cavaliers. I think their recent pickups of Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, and Javale McGee are suspect.
  10. Portland Trailblazers (41) I think Damian Lillard had a phenomenal season but it was also a career year. Look for him to regress a bit without any strong steps forward from the rest of this squad.
  11. Dallas Mavericks (38) Luca Doncic is going to be an NBA star, but this team is a few years away from competing. 
  12. Los Angeles Clippers (34) I’m still not sure how the Clippers performed as well as did last season and it’s possible I’m missing something here. But I don’t think this team is quite good enough to compete in an excellent Western Conference. 
  13. Memphis Grizzlies (33) The Grizzlies seem to think they’ll be competitive with Mike Conley and Marc Gasol healthy but I’m not so sure. My money is on this team struggling and then the front office breaks things up.
  14. Phoenix Suns (26) Another team operating under delusions of grandeur, they have some nice young players but will struggle for a few more seasons. Look for them to shoot themselves in the foot by making an ill-advised trade for a veteran point guard.
  15. Sacramento Kings (25) The Kings are bad. Marvin Bagley might be a good NBA player but I doubt he’ll be better than Doncic.

Eastern Conference

  1. Toronto Raptors (62) Take a 59 win team, swap out DeMar DeRozan for Kawhi Leonard, and remove LeBron from the conference. That sounds like 3 more wins to me. If Leonard’s injury is not resolved this won’t happen, but all signs indicate he will be ready to go this week. 
  2. Boston Celtics (55) One of my biggest problems last season was accurately predicting the performance of young players improving their skills. I attempted to tackle that with these young Celtics stars but I will not be shocked if they outperform this projection.
  3. Philadelphia 76ers (54) See my above comment given the number of young stars in Philadelphia. I’m not expecting great things from Markelle Fultz although I think he’ll be a positive contributor. It’s always fair to question the health of Joel Embiid, too.
  4. Indiana Pacers (51) So long as Victor Oladipo doesn’t serously regress, this team should be real good. Tyreke Evans is a great addition for them.
  5. Milwaukee Bucks (50) I am really struggling with how to appropriately factor in the huge coaching upgrade from Jason Kidd to Mike Budenholzer. Based on preseason games, which we should take with a grain of salt, Giannis Antetokounmpo looks like a leading MVP candidate.
  6. Washington Wizards (48) If there is one thing I feel confident predicting, it is that the Wizards will have locker room troubles. We have seen it before from teams lead by John Wall and it is basically guarantee when Dwight Howard comes to town. I’m curious to see how Thomas Satoransky compared to last year as a fill-in starter when Wall was injured. 
  7. Miami Heat (43) I am tempted to project the Heat trading for Jimmy Butler but that’s not looking like a done deal. The Heat look stuck in just-above-mediocrity. They have lots of good players, but not a single very good one. 
  8. Brooklyn Nets (39) I am feeling a bit uneasy about how I have the Nets. But it’s worth considering how most analysts love the Nets style, particularly their shooting profile, they just have lacked the talent to date. In a weak Eastern Conference, they have a chance to be competitive. 
  9. Detroit Pistons (35) Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin looked surprisingly good on the court together. But its still not a very effective roster makeup and they’re going to struggle to score. I’m not giving a boost for regular season master coach Dwayne Casey, who could push them at least into the playoffs.
  10. Charlotte Hornets (35) I want to see Kemba Walker on a roster where the second best player is better than Jeremy Lamb! 
  11. Cleveland Cavaliers (30) I don’t see how Kevin Love is a successful first option in today’s NBA. Minnesota Kevin Love was bigger and able to bully guys around in the post. After getting into shape to be a corner 3 threat for LeBron, this is going to be a rough adjustment. They also like a decent point guard which has a multiplying negative effect.
  12. Orlando Magic (27) The Magic are struggling. Who will win games for them? D.J. Augustin? Nikola Vucevic? They’ve got Aaron Gordon I guess. Oh and this factors in Mo Bamba as a decent rookie.
  13. Chicago Bulls (27) The Bulls have some reasons for optimism, just a few years into the future. They have made a number of poor decisions recently, such as picking up Jabari Parker and signing Zach Lavine for too much money.
  14. New York Knicks (27) I would have them a bit higher if Kristaps Porzingis was healthy. Until then, they’ll be relying on Enes Kanter (who looked surprisingly good last season) and Tim Hardaway Jr. Just not good enough. 
  15. Atlanta Hawks (25) Trae Young will likely have a handful of games where he goes crazy but for the most part he will struggle. I have John Collins and Alex Len as their best players. Yeah, they are going to be bad.

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The Future of Football

I think football has two major problems that will require change.

First, football is a dangerous sport. There is mounting evidence that football, particularly at the highest level, causes brain damage.

This could become a hit to popularity if fans lose interest in watching concussions. As parents grow concerned, fewer youth football players likely means fewer lifelong fans.

Second, college football is a financially lucrative business built upon players restricted from earning salaries. Division I football players receive scholarships covering tuition, housing, meals, etc. For most, this is a good deal. But some players are vastly underpaid. After being drafted first this year, Baker Mayfield will earn upwards of $8 million per year in the NFL. How does that compare to his scholarship just a few months ago at the University of Oklahoma?

At some point I believe this will be widely regarded as unacceptable. Players like Mayfield bring in significant revenue to their universities and to the NCAA. While student-athletes are not allowed to bring home any of the cash directly, one devastating injury could take away their future as professional athletes.

A related criticism of this arrangement is that college football (and basketball) have become so big they are major distractions to universities. In some cases, star student-athletes are treated differently in the classroom and in university discipline systems. Football coaches are some of the highest paid government employees in many states.

Where is this all headed? First, I think we will see professional football careers shorten. Long-lasting head trauma is a result of repeated blows, which can be minimized by playing football for fewer years. Second, I think we will see an uncoupling of major sports from universities. Most major football programs have enough brand loyalty to continue on divorced from their (now former) university. Third, I think these two trends will merge towards a unified system of professional football. Most players will play from the ages of 18 to 25 and we could see a future matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Cleveland Browns.

There are obviously other common grievances with football. Many fans think the football rulebook has become too complex. Some fans think the NFL is anti-patriotic. Cord-cutting could be a financial risk for football. But I think only the high risk of concussions and the student-athlete arrangements are existential risks to the current football system.

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Minnesota Timberwolves & poor management

The biggest story in the NBA is the broken relationship between Jimmy Butler and the Minnesota Timberwolves. While I don’t have enough information to truly know what is going on, from the outside it seems they are suffering from a failure of management. I see two clear problems:
  1. They gave Tom Thibodeau the foolish Coach & General Manager dual role. Setting aside whether these two workloads are too much for one person to accomplish effectively, they are somewhat at odds. Coaches should focus on making the most of a given season by winning each and every game possible. General managers should focus on maximizing the team in a longer time horizon. General managers can make smart decisions to prioritize the current season if it maximizes their long term overall. We have seen time and time again that combining these two roles ends in failure as franchises fail to manage their assets properly. 
  2. Owner Glen Taylor has been interfering with decisions to be made by the basketball operations team. I don’t know much about Taylor and he is probably smarter than I am. But I doubt he knows more about basketball than Thibodeau. The Timberwolves recently offered Andrew Wiggins, their third-best player, an overpayment of a five-year $150 million contract. While most NBA analysts agree this was a poor decision (Wiggins has had a negative Value Over Replacement Player in each of his four NBA seasons) it was Taylor who pushed this contract after asking Wiggins to promise to get better. Now, despite Thibodeau refusing to trade Butler, Taylor is pushing to make a trade. I suspect Thibodeau understands there is not a trade to be made that makes basketball sense for the Timberwolves while Taylor is reacting emotionally to Butler’s negative attitude. This is understandable but ultimately unwise. And if I were a Timberwolves fan I would be furious because it was the overpayment to Wiggins that likely started this rift, given Butler has said the dispute is over finances.
The Timberwolves will likely trade Butler for a poor return. The only other possibility is to not trade him and he remains on the team, unhappy, adding further friction to the locker room. While Butler is now clearly a problem, their woes stem from a failure of management.
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Why I’m Bullish on the NBA

Growing up, I played a number of sports but I was best at football. Football was easily my favorite sport a few years ago. In 2010 two things happened: I stopped playing football (because I graduated high school) and I became interested in the NBA.

Michael Jordan’s last season with the Bulls ended when I was 7. I remember that era, but just barely. While I played basketball for many of the years I was playing football I did not find the NBA very interesting.

When I started to gain interest in the NBA in 2010, not only were my hometown Bulls good again (lead by local kid Derrick Rose) but the league was fun to watch. Since then I have watched more and more of the NBA but less and less of the NFL. I’m not sure when the breaking point was, but basketball is unquestionably my favorite sport.

Here is why I’m bullish on the future of the NBA. Some are personal preference, some are just reasons to believe the league will succeed:

  • Personalities. NFL teams have around 50 players on their roster with 22 starters. The NBA have 15 man rosters with 5 starters. With fewer players on the playing field, each player becomes more important. It also becomes easier to follow the different players, their unique qualities, and their relationships with one another. 
  • Storylines. Check out this Slate article from the crazy stories of just last season. The #1 overall pick forgot how to shoot. Players confronting the opposing team (and former teammates) in their locker rooms after a game. A player tweeting out “I Dont wanna be here”. A player got suspended for throwing soup at an assistant coach. Someone on the internet figures out a general manager’s wife was using burner accounts to leak confidential information. Tell me, what other league has this many crazy stories?!
  • Player retention. The NBA has shaped their collective bargaining agreement to allow teams to retain players for the long haul. I’m not a huge fan of this personally, but it helps smaller market teams stay competitive. This improves league balance and national fan engagement.
  • International growth. NBA fandom in China skyrocketed when Yao Ming was a star for the Houston Rockets. There are a huge number of top NBA stars from abroad: Greek Giannis Anteokounmpo, Australian Kyrie Irving, Cameroonian Joel Embiid, Serbian Nikola Jokic, Latvian Kristaps Porzingas are all top 25 players. Interest in the NBA around the globe is only going to go up as more and more international players gain stature in the association.
  • Safety. I still love football, but at the end of the day basketball is clearly safer. This allows players to play longer, have healthier retirements, and encourages more kids to play. 
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NBA Players To Watch

We are less than two weeks away from the 2015-2016 NBA season! I think last season went down as one of the best NBA seasons of all time, certainly the best in my young memory. While this season will almost certainly be less exciting than last year, there’s a number of storylines, teams, and players to keep an eye on. Here are the Top 10 players I’m excited to watch this season. 
10: Kevin Durant I wouldn’t say I’m actually excited to watch Kevin Durant play for the Warriors, but I’m certainly curious to see how it goes. One thing we have learned about KD from this offseason is that he’s happy for things to be easy for him, so there is the possibility he has a personal dropoff and allows those around him to carry the load this season. But more than likely, the Warriors will torch the league even more than they did than last season.

9: Giannis Antetokounmpo The 6’11” Greek Freak will be playing Point Guard this season. The Bucks will likely struggle to even break .500, especially with Middleton hurt, but the Point Giannis experiment will be fun to watch. At just 21 years old, Giannis has as much potential as anyone in the league to win MVP in five years (around the age Durant was in his MVP season). 
8:  Nikola Jokic My description is Jokic is a lot like his game, short and sweet: he plays a quiet game but no big man passes like Jokic. 
7: E’Twaun Moore I have been of E’Twaun’s since he played for Purdue from 2007 to 2011. After a breakout year for my Bulls in his fifth year in the NBA, Moore landed a $34m contract with the Pelicans. While I’m sad to see him leave Chicago, I hope to see him have an even bigger year with a bigger role.
6: Anthony Davis Another contender for possible MVP winner in the next few years, Davis is the best all-around big man in basketball. Against the Pistons back in February Davis had 59 points, 20 rebounds, and 4 assists for the fourth-highest game score in regular season history. Yeah, this guy is worth watching. 
5: Joel Embiid After being drafted third overall in 2014 by the 76ers, Joel “The Process” Embiid is now recovered from a broken foot bone. Based on his preseason footage, he has the potential to go down as an all-time great player. Three things to watch with Embiid: How well does he develop as a player (less turnovers, smarter post play, does he become a real perimeter threat)? What effect does playing for Philadelphia have on his development in terms of his skills and mindset? Will injuries continue to plague him as has happened to so many other promising front court players? 
4: Karl-Anthony Towns The reigning Rookie of the Year, Towns and the Timberwolves will likely take a big step forward under the direction of Coach Tom Thibodeau. Towns and teammate Andrew Wiggins (his predecessor as Rookie of the Year) form an exciting core that could take the Western Conference by storm if the current Warriors core disassembles in the next few seasons.
3: Denzel Valentine Naturally I’m excited to watch a former star for my Michigan State Spartans drafted in the first round by my Chicago Bulls. Valentine has looked alright in summer league and preseason, getting to the rim at a decent rate but showing weaknesses defensively. It remains to be seen how the Bulls will utilize Valentine. Will he be a backup ballhandler when Rondo and Wade are on the bench? Or will he come in to provide outside scoring for the perimeter-challenged Rondo/Wade/Butler trio, considering he was a 44% 3-point shooter last season?
2: James Harden I think Harden is the most dominant offensive player in the NBA, even more so than Curry. He gets a bad rap for his poor defensive effort but I can’t blame a guy who has to carry nearly the entire offensive load for his team night in and night out. With Harden officially taking on more of a Point Guard role and the Rockets bringing in Coach Mike D’Antoni, an offensive juggernaut who can take Harden to another level, he should be a a highlight machine. This Rockets team will try to answer the question: How successful can you be as an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team?
1: Russell Westbrook Hustle Bestbrook. Muscle Chestbrook. Knuckle Westbrick. Westbrook is the most exciting basketball player to watch because he gives 200% on every play, every night. But it isn’t always roses with Westbrook. He has a habit of making unwise gambles defensively or chucking up bad shots to try and take over a game. Live by the Russ, die by the Russ. After this offseason, I hope Billy Donavon can channel Westbrook’s passion towards an MVP season with the Thunder contending come the post-season. Regardless of how their season goes, Russ will be must-see TV this year. 
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2016 NBA Playoff Predictions

Wow! The 2015-2016 NBA regular season came to a conclusion last night in spectacular fashion. Kobe Bryant ended his career by scoring 60 points and willing the Lakers to victory over the Jazz. Meanwhile, Steph Curry hit his 402nd 3-point shot as the Golden State Warriors became the first NBA team to win 73 regular season games. This was the perfect finale to a great NBA regular season. Even though my Chicago Bulls are eliminated (or maybe because of it, freeing me up to root for whomever I please) I am excited for the playoffs. Here’s the playoff picture and my predictions:

Round 1
Western Conference
Golden State Warriors defeat Houston Rockets (4-0). The Rockets have no answer defensively for the Warriors’ historic offensive attack. While James Harden could conceivably score his way to one victory if the Splash Brothers have an off night, I wouldn’t count on it.
Los Angeles Clippers lose to Portland Trail Blazers (4-2). My “upset” pick in the West. In a league that increasingly values versatility, the Clippers embody comparative advantage. Paul passes, Redick shoots from outside, Griffin scores from inside, and Jordan rebounds. This won’t get it done against the Trailblazers, whose rising stars Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum look increasingly in sync.
Oklahoma City Thunder defeat Dallas Mavericks (4-0). The Thunder’s biggest challenge in the playoffs will be avoiding late-game collapses. Luckily for them, this Mavericks team probably won’t be able to keep up with the Thunder through the first three quarters.
San Antonio Spurs defeat Memphis Grizzlies (4-0). This is the most lopsided match-up in the West. The Spurs will be able to defensively lock down what little offensive firepower the Grizzlies have without much trouble.

Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers defeat Detroit Pistons (4-1). The Cavaliers don’t look very impressive for a top team outside of LeBron. But Playoff LeBron is here and he is out to dominate. The Pistons will pick up one at home in a game where LeBron clunks up too many jumpshots but that’s all they will get.
Atlanta Hawks defeat Boston Celtics (4-3). This should be the tightest first round series of the playoffs. For me this is essentially a toss-up, and I’m not sure I can even give Atlanta and edge for home court advantage given the likely energy levels in Philips and TD Garden. I don’t think the Celtics have a clear answer for Paul Millsap and Al Horford, but I’m anxious to see how Brad Stevens gameplans against them.
Miami Heat defeat Charlotte Hornets (4-1). No pun intended, the Heat are the hottest team in the East. Their recent acquisition of Joe Johnson looks like the move of the season. Jeremy Lin will have one of his great bench performances in the Hornets’ lone win.
Toronto Raptors defeat Indiana Pacers (4-0). This series is easy to write off because the Pacers just aren’t very good. But I’ll take this opportunity to say the Raptors are an enigma to me. They play with the second-slowest pace in the NBA and are middle of the pack in scoring.

Round 2
Western Conference
Golden State Warriors defeat Portland Trail Blazers (4-1). Obviously, the Warriors are the team to beat. But you need exceptional defense to beat Golden State and the Trail Blazers are lackluster on defense.
San Antonio Spurs defeat Oklahoma City Thunder (4-2). What a great match-up in the conference semi-finals. I will be rooting for Oklahoma City but they’re going to have an uphill battle. They will need their supporting cast to play above much better than they’ve shown if they are going to beat the Spurs. Also count on Westbrook for a boneheaded play in crunch time for a close loss.

Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers defeat Atlanta Hawks (4-0). Playoff LeBron will dominate a solid but average Hawks squad, aided by Kevin Love’s ability to stretch Atlanta’s strong front court out of the paint.
Toronto Raptors lose to Miami Heat (4-2). Here’s my big upset pick of the East. Again, I think the Heat are red hot and I just don’t understand the Raptors. The Heat will bring too much between Wade and Johnson’s scoring as well as Whiteside’s defense for the Raptors to handle.

Round 3
Western Conference
Golden State Warriors defeat San Antonio Spurs (4-2). This will be an epic battle. The Spurs have shown they can lock up Steph Curry from outside. I think they’ll do that again while at home, but that level of defense against Steph just isn’t sustainable for a full series. Role players for the Warriors like Iguodala, Speights, and Livingston will also come up big in this series.

Eastern Conference
Cleveland Cavaliers defeat Miami Heat (4-3). Oh man, what a match-up this will be if it happens. The Heat go from the villains of the league to America’s Team against LeBron. This would be straight out of a WWE plot and I really hope it happens. The Heat will keep it close but they don’t have the ability to truly stop LeBron in seven games.

Finals
Golden State Warriors defeat Cleveland Cavaliers (4-1). Cleveland will bring more to the table this year if their squad remains healthy, but Golden State is playing at an even higher level of greatness than they did last year. Draymond Green will give the Cavaliers fits on offense and defense while Kevin Love will choke on the big stage. Count on Tyronn Lue to make a big mistake and/or get told what to do by LeBron in a big moment during this series.

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Golf

Yesterday I played golf. Golf is okay.
My family really likes golf, especially my Mom’s side of the family. My parents had me taking golf lessons at, I’d guess, age 7 or 8. They wanted to make sure I knew how to play and the basic rules of golf. At the time I was never very excited about it but now I’m grateful they did that.
Today golf is probably the most convenient sport to play with my friends. I play softball in the summer. All softball requires is that I show up with a glove. But you have to get together a team of nine or more and schedule a season. Golf involves lugging a heavy set of golf clubs so public transit is out of the question. But you only need a friend or two and you can play a round. 
I have never been particularly good at golf. Golf isn’t about physical strength, or physical fitness at all really (hello John Daly). It is about technique, consistency, and mental strength. These are not traits you find in young people. During my teenage years I found golf too frustrating and only played it when I had to do so. About two years ago, I became interested in golf again. I have mellowed out a bit and also have an easier time accepting I’m not going to be great at golf. So I take it as a relaxing physical activity I can do with friends and family. If I’m lucky, I’ll have one or two good shots in a round.
One problem I still have is my instinct to try and hit the ball hard. Just as mental strength is more important than physical strength, a smooth swing is more important than a hard swing. When I approach the ball and take a few practice swings, I do just fine. But then I step up to the ball for my actual shot and my body kicks in like I am trying to hit a home run. 
Being good at golf requires a consistent swing. When I put some time in to work on my swing I can play decently. But when I play sparingly it is hard to internalize the improvements to my swing. If I want to get any good at golf, I guess I will just have to play more.
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Sports Journalism is Terrible

Sports journalism is awful. Simply dreadful. It is full of cliches, empty rhetoric, and utter nonsense.

While at the gym today, I saw a segment on Sportscenter (the premier sports journalism show) about the firing of Seattle Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon. In the segement, one of ESPN’s top baseball experts Tim Kurkjian said more General Managers are willing to fire Managers today because the relationship between GM and Manager is more important than ever before. Kurkjian was asked a simple yet (would be) illuminating question: why is this? That is, what has changed to make this relationship more important.

Kurkjian gave a classic non-answer, offering up “the GM and Manager need to be on the same page” for five minutes, which is essentially repeating the question. An absolute garbage answer. I can’t say I’m too surprised. Kurkjian didn’t present any basic statistics about the rate of manager firings in the MLB over time so I have no reason to believe his claim is even true. If I had to guess, if pressed, Kurkjian would admit that deep down he doesn’t really know either.

My inner economist speculates the incentives for good or poor sports commentary are too weak. Sports journalists aren’t forced to revisit their predictions (that means you, John Kruk). I’m a big fan of prediction markets because of the power of price signals to share information. I wonder how a sports analysis website centered around a prediction market would fare. It should provide more accurate insights and predictions, which would lead to greater viewership if other sports fans are looking for that.

My favorite criticism of sports journalism came from the blog FireJoeMorgan.com. In over 1,000 posts over 3 and a half years, the bloggers pointed out the absurdities of baseball “experts”. The blog was named for Joe Morgan, who was one of the most high-profile commentators who fit their profile, but addressed many other sports pundits (Kurkjian included).

The blog ran from 2005 to 2008 in which Michael Lewis’ Moneyball was topic of debate within professional baseball. There was a common thread between the sportswriters profiled by FJM: they criticized Moneyball without having a rudimentary sense of what it was really about (Morgan even showed his ignorance regarding Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane’s role in the book: he is the subject matter, not the author). While they did not identify themselves at the time, Michael Schur and Alan Yang (who went on to create Parks and Recreation) were contributors to the blog.

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3-3-5 Defense

My high school football team ran a 3-3-5 defense. This means that there were three down linemen, three linebackers directly behind the linemen, and five defensive backs (two cornerbacks, one free safety, and two “spurs” or strong safeties). Your typical football defense is a 4-3 or 3-4, which will have four linemen and three linebackers or vice versa. This leaves four defensive backs, two cornerbacks and two safeties.

What makes the 3-3-5 defense unique is there are only six players lined up in the box and only three on the line of scrimmage. However, there are five defensive backs to cover the pass or blitz, which is one more than a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme. This means the 3-3-5 is suited to defend against offenses that pass more than they run.

Running a 3-3-5 defense in high school was really unwise. Generally high school offenses will be either run-heavy or balanced with play action and short passes making up a majority of the passing game. High school offenses with a quarterback who can throw the deep ball accurately, and talented wide receivers who run good routes and catch the ball well, are rare. At least, a lot more rare than teams with what you need to run the ball: a competent offensive line and a running back who can power ahead for at least four yards a carry.

Stopping the run in a 3-3-5 was difficult. Five offensive linemen faced off against our three down linemen. By the time linebackers came up to stop the run, the offense usually had a solid hole and momentum. In hindsight, I think the 3-3-5 places a high priority on linebackers filling their gaps based on their read of the guard. I was taught to read my keys and react but I don’t think this was emphasized enough by our coaches.

Unsurprisingly, we had a decent pass defense but we were pretty poor at stopping the run. I would be interested to see our past statistics against run and pass players. I also wonder if my coaches ever did that. Each offseason we had the opportunity to switch to a new defensive system, such as the standard 4-3 and 3-4 or even a 4-4 scheme. We switched from the Wing T offense to a Spread offense during my time playing football at Saline High School. I have mixed feelings about that switch (I think it worked out the first year, but we should have switched back to the Wing T or something similar for my Senior year due to personal) which I may write about some other time.