Update on NBA Game Log

Now that the NBA season is underway, I am using the NBA game log tool I built. This allows me to track the games I watch and the notes I take. I’m primarily interested in tracking how much I have watched of each team so I can keep an eye on the entire league.

This idea was included in my previous projects post. Last season I tracked the games I watched in a spreadsheet. So far this app is easier to use, especially for looking at the data as a whole, and adds the capability of logging notes. 

I built this app using the Javascript MEAN stack: MongoDB, Express.js, Angular, and Node.js. This was my most ambitious Javascript project to date. I have learned a lot, especially regarding API design. I’m proud of what I have built so far but have more I would like to do such as:

  • Better design and interface
  • Password reset for users
  • Different analysis dashboards, such as for a particular team or player
  • Customizable sharing options for different users

Anyone can create an account and use the app but I mostly built it for my NBA viewing and for my Javascript experience. 

Predicting the 2018-19 NBA Season

Just in time for the NBA season to kick off tomorrow, I have projected win totals for each team. Below you will find my predictions for each team alongside latest Vegas odds. I’ve also included the difference between my predictions and the Vegas line, as well as the absolute value of the differences. Below the tables you’ll find my team by team thoughts. Here’s to hoping I do better than last season, with a median difference between prediction and actual wins of 6.

Western Conference

  1. Golden State Warriors (55) I’m nervous with how low this prediction is, but there are two important factors to consider. First, the West is going to be a bloodbath this season. Only the Kings are outright terrible. Second, we have seen this team prioritize the postseason which makes sense given the injury history of stars like Curry and Durant.
  2. Houston Rockets (53) Their roster got a bit weaker. Also, last year they were gunning to show their dominance and win Harden an MVP. This year, look for them to also prioritize postseason health.
  3. Utah Jazz (49) The Jazz looked great last postseason and sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell should only improve. 
  4. San Antonio Spurs (48) Yes, I factored in Dejounte Murray’s season-ending injury. The question for the Spurs is what can they get out of DeMar DeRozan? 
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder (47) Simply getting rid of Carmelo should be a net positive for the Thunder. However, they have a few reasons for concern. First, Russell Westbrook relies heavily on athleticism but is turning 30 next month. Second, Andre Roberson has apparently suffered a setback in his injury recovery. Having Roberson on the court is essential to their defense which is essential to the Thunder being an elite team. 
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves (45) I took Jimmy Butler off the Timberwolves but I did not put him on another team, which will almost certainly create problems at season’s end. I also gave Wiggins a small boost to his production in the season before Butler came to Minnesota.
  7. Denver Nuggets (44) This is a nice young team with plenty of players poised to improve: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris. Having Paul Millsap back from injury will be a nice boost to possibly get them into the playoffs this year. If Jokic does not improve on defense, they could be in trouble.
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (43) The Pelicans looked phenomenal in the playoffs against the Trailblazers. They are basically bringing back that squad with an added Julius Randle, who should be a great addition.
  9. Los Angeles Lakers (42) Yes, right now I have a LeBron team missing the playoffs. By a game.  I could see them as high as fourth if you look at how tight these win projections are. I think we’re all curious how this team will look given how differently they are built than the LeBron Cavaliers. I think their recent pickups of Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, and Javale McGee are suspect.
  10. Portland Trailblazers (41) I think Damian Lillard had a phenomenal season but it was also a career year. Look for him to regress a bit without any strong steps forward from the rest of this squad.
  11. Dallas Mavericks (38) Luca Doncic is going to be an NBA star, but this team is a few years away from competing. 
  12. Los Angeles Clippers (34) I’m still not sure how the Clippers performed as well as did last season and it’s possible I’m missing something here. But I don’t think this team is quite good enough to compete in an excellent Western Conference. 
  13. Memphis Grizzlies (33) The Grizzlies seem to think they’ll be competitive with Mike Conley and Marc Gasol healthy but I’m not so sure. My money is on this team struggling and then the front office breaks things up.
  14. Phoenix Suns (26) Another team operating under delusions of grandeur, they have some nice young players but will struggle for a few more seasons. Look for them to shoot themselves in the foot by making an ill-advised trade for a veteran point guard.
  15. Sacramento Kings (25) The Kings are bad. Marvin Bagley might be a good NBA player but I doubt he’ll be better than Doncic.

Eastern Conference

  1. Toronto Raptors (62) Take a 59 win team, swap out DeMar DeRozan for Kawhi Leonard, and remove LeBron from the conference. That sounds like 3 more wins to me. If Leonard’s injury is not resolved this won’t happen, but all signs indicate he will be ready to go this week. 
  2. Boston Celtics (55) One of my biggest problems last season was accurately predicting the performance of young players improving their skills. I attempted to tackle that with these young Celtics stars but I will not be shocked if they outperform this projection.
  3. Philadelphia 76ers (54) See my above comment given the number of young stars in Philadelphia. I’m not expecting great things from Markelle Fultz although I think he’ll be a positive contributor. It’s always fair to question the health of Joel Embiid, too.
  4. Indiana Pacers (51) So long as Victor Oladipo doesn’t serously regress, this team should be real good. Tyreke Evans is a great addition for them.
  5. Milwaukee Bucks (50) I am really struggling with how to appropriately factor in the huge coaching upgrade from Jason Kidd to Mike Budenholzer. Based on preseason games, which we should take with a grain of salt, Giannis Antetokounmpo looks like a leading MVP candidate.
  6. Washington Wizards (48) If there is one thing I feel confident predicting, it is that the Wizards will have locker room troubles. We have seen it before from teams lead by John Wall and it is basically guarantee when Dwight Howard comes to town. I’m curious to see how Thomas Satoransky compared to last year as a fill-in starter when Wall was injured. 
  7. Miami Heat (43) I am tempted to project the Heat trading for Jimmy Butler but that’s not looking like a done deal. The Heat look stuck in just-above-mediocrity. They have lots of good players, but not a single very good one. 
  8. Brooklyn Nets (39) I am feeling a bit uneasy about how I have the Nets. But it’s worth considering how most analysts love the Nets style, particularly their shooting profile, they just have lacked the talent to date. In a weak Eastern Conference, they have a chance to be competitive. 
  9. Detroit Pistons (35) Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin looked surprisingly good on the court together. But its still not a very effective roster makeup and they’re going to struggle to score. I’m not giving a boost for regular season master coach Dwayne Casey, who could push them at least into the playoffs.
  10. Charlotte Hornets (35) I want to see Kemba Walker on a roster where the second best player is better than Jeremy Lamb! 
  11. Cleveland Cavaliers (30) I don’t see how Kevin Love is a successful first option in today’s NBA. Minnesota Kevin Love was bigger and able to bully guys around in the post. After getting into shape to be a corner 3 threat for LeBron, this is going to be a rough adjustment. They also like a decent point guard which has a multiplying negative effect.
  12. Orlando Magic (27) The Magic are struggling. Who will win games for them? D.J. Augustin? Nikola Vucevic? They’ve got Aaron Gordon I guess. Oh and this factors in Mo Bamba as a decent rookie.
  13. Chicago Bulls (27) The Bulls have some reasons for optimism, just a few years into the future. They have made a number of poor decisions recently, such as picking up Jabari Parker and signing Zach Lavine for too much money.
  14. New York Knicks (27) I would have them a bit higher if Kristaps Porzingis was healthy. Until then, they’ll be relying on Enes Kanter (who looked surprisingly good last season) and Tim Hardaway Jr. Just not good enough. 
  15. Atlanta Hawks (25) Trae Young will likely have a handful of games where he goes crazy but for the most part he will struggle. I have John Collins and Alex Len as their best players. Yeah, they are going to be bad.

Analytics

One challenge I face in working in analytics is people commonly misunderstand analytics. It seems to stem from a misunderstanding of what data is.

Data is just information.

When you think of data, you probably think of numbers. Lots and lots of numbers, maybe in a spreadsheet. And when you think of analytics, I’m guessing you think of complicated equations and graphs.

That’s a good start, but it is a very incomplete picture. Data, or information, comes in many shapes and sizes.

Analytics, in my mind, is simply the use of data to answer questions.

In basketball, there are often debates between the analytics approach and the eye test approach. The analytics approach focuses on how a player looks on the stats sheet: shooting percentage or effective field goal percentage. The eye test approach focuses on how a player looks on the court: their skill set or confidence.

I think the eye test is just one form of analytics. And the observations an analyst or fan makes (how is the player with the ball in their hands? how is their court vision? how is their shooting form?) are data.

And yet, most people distinguish between “analytics” and common analytical practices like the eye test. Why?

There are two elements that come to my mind about what distinguishes “analytics”:

  • Focus on the questions to be answered
  • Standardized data
Does the eye test include these factors? Well, not usually. So maybe I’m overselling it to say that’s analytics. But I think it certainly can be. 
One of the most important books in the analytics realm is How to Measure Anything. It is a classic resource for advice on how to measure the, well, seemingly unmeasureable. 

The eye test has a high degree of subjectivity. Different observers will have different and biased observations even of the same player. But there are a number of steps you can take, such as a grading rubric or a peer review system, to standardize the observation data. 
When it comes to focusing on the questions to be answered, you might need to use different systems for answering different questions. How you compare two basketball players of the same age at the same position may differ from how you compare two basketball players at different positions. Or two players from different eras. But you will need some clear system for standardizing and comparing your data. 
I’m using examples from basketball because I spend a lot of time thinking about basketball analytics and it’s a more accessible example than most examples from my job. But I encounter a lot of this at work as well. My colleagues will think that the analytics team is separate from their work. 
A successful analytics team needs to seek out their colleagues’ own “eye tests” and incorporate that data for value-producing organization-wide analytics. 

Non-Profit Measurement

For-profit companies have it so easy. Maximize revenue, minimize expenses. Make a profit.

There are important steps to making a profit. Develop a product that provides value. Identify customers. Sell customers on your product. Bring in talent and keep them happy.

But at the end of the day, your balance sheet tells you how you are doing. It is not so clear for a non-profit.

I have worked for a few non-profits now. Here is a sample of their mission statements:

…to inspire, educate, and connect future leaders with the economic, ethical, and legal principles of a free society.

…to educate, develop, and empower the next generation of leaders of liberty.

 …to ensure higher education becomes a place where classical liberal ideas are regularly taught, discussed, challenged, and developed, and where free speech, intellectual diversity, and open inquiry flourish.

If you are an organizational leader or a financial supporter, how do you know if a non-profit is successfully advancing such a mission?
This is where non-profit measurement comes in. 
Non-profit measurement is the attempt to measure an organization’s impact. This means attempting to answer questions such as: 
  • What does success look like? 
  • Is our organization moving us closer to success? 
  • How do we know? 
  • If we are working towards long-term results, what short-term indicators can reasonably suggest long-term success?
In my experience, effective measurement provides a common language and clear (if inexact) answers to these questions. These are guidelines to steer team members in making decisions that move the organization in a unified direction. 
If you wonder what I do for a living, I attempt to help the Institute for Humane Studies measure success and make better decisions towards furthering our vision.