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Is the libertarian moment over?

Is the libertarian moment over? Did it ever even begin? Jerry Taylor, President of the Niskanen Center, argues that libertarianism as a political ideology is struggling in the United States. “The collapse of Rand Paul”, Taylor argues, shows just how little public support is out there for libertarianism. Taylor’s argument is in direct contrast with speculation that the U.S. has been approaching a possible “libertarian moment”.

I agree with Taylor regarding the present and short-term future. Rand Paul, the most libertarian candidate in the current U.S. Presidential race, is drawing anemic poll numbers despite a slew of press pieces pointing out his unique views within the Republican field. I don’t predict the number of libertarian public officials or policies to significantly increase in the next five years. Those political outcomes are the result of the interest group jockying within the constraints of the “Overton Window” of public policy. The current state of opinion is not very libertarian.

I don’t think the collapse of Rand Paul’s polling numbers tell us much about the full political prospects of libertarianism. While Rand Paul is arguably the most libertarian member of the Republican field, there is a legitimate case to be made that his campaign would be in better position if he branded himself as more of a libertarian. Jacob Sullum argues Rand Paul is not very libertarian on drug policy. This year Paul proposed a 16 percent increase to the defense budget. Ed Crane wants to know why Rand Paul has stopped using his libertarian views to distinguish himself.

This is no “no true Scotsman” defense of libertarianism. For the record, I think no true libertarian can be elected President of the United States right now. How close a candidate can get to electoral success, however, we can’t judge from Rand Paul. Take it from the man himself, he’s “not a libertarian”.

More importantly, Taylor fails to address the most promising (for libertarians) input into the American Overton Window: young people. Self-identified libertarians are a larger share of the population among young people. A YouGov poll found that 20% of millenials identify as libertarians, higher than the 15% figure across all demographics. This isn’t an earth-shattering shift, but it is a trend in the right direction for libertarians. Political beliefs at the start of adulthood tend to hold relatively steady throughout one’s lifetime. Ray Fisman found evidence of this political inertia at least within the confines of the two-party system. If this is indeed true, the growing contingent of young libertarians should hold during the lifetimes of millenials.

One more thought: Taylor rightfully points out that the candidate of choice for “libertarian-inclined Republicans is Donald Trump, the least libertarian candidate in the race”. A large portion of this can likely be explained by sad but harsh truths to libertarians: many of the libertarian-inclined Republicans are probably not very libertarian and this demographic may be more concerned with race than we would like to think. But don’t discount the desire of many libertarians to see the (political) world burn. Donald Trump is political kerosene right now.

I’m not certain young Americans will turn out to be a net-positive force for libertarianism. I don’t think Rand Paul or any libertarian candidate has a shot at the Presidency right now. But Rand Paul’s failing campaign doesn’t tell us much about the political prospects of libertarians and the growing interest in libertarianism among young people is a reason for libertarian optimism. 
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Homecoming at MSU

On Saturday Kelly and I drove up to East Lansing for homecoming at Michigan State. We spent the day with my old housemates Kyle, Nick, and Jay, along with Jay’s girlfriend Kara and our friend Charlie. It was a long yet fun day.

Kelly and I woke at 7am in order to begin tailgating before the noon game. We arrived around 9:30 and met up with our group. We then called Ubers to take us to the house of the younger sister of Mollie, who used to live with Kyle’s girlfriend Kate and went to high school with Kyle. We spent about 45 minutes hanging out there before walking across campus to the tennis courts, a tailgating hotspot. Along the way my friend Dillon, who I worked with as a counselor at Boys State, came up to us. We caught up with him and his girlfriend Emily for about 10 minutes before reconnecting with out original group at a tailgate hosted by the family of Hailey, Nick’s new female companion.

We headed for the stadium and arrived just in time for kickoff. Despite a forecast of clear skies, it poured for a majority of the game. Our friends left at halftime and we left after 3 quarters. We all watched the last quarter from Harrison Roadhouse. MSU barely squeaked out a victory over Purdue after jumping out to an early 21-0 lead. We have lost 7 starters to injury and I’m starting to worry about this team.

In the evening, we got in to P.T. O’Malley’s just before they restricted entry. P.T.’s is where we celebrated my 21st birthday. We had a good time there, including Jay knocking over a drink while attempting to say hi to some girls and Kelly dancing to Footloose. We stopped for wraps at Conrad’s, classic East Lansing drunk food. While walking down the street we recognized a friend of Nick’s. Kyle pointed at him and went “hey its…” with no clue what his name was, which was awkward but hilarious. In our hotel room Kyle said, out of nowhere, “my old boss…” and didn’t finish his thought. Good work Kyle.

It was a great weekend. I’m lucky that this group has continued to get together in East Lansing every year and it was great to have Kelly join the fun. Hopefully next year we’ll do it again, without the rain!

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Michigan State vs Purdue

Tomorrow Kelly and I are heading up to East Lansing to see Michigan State play football against Purdue. Michigan State football is in the middle of a golden age. Since Mark Dantonio took over the program in 2007, the team has had 79 victories and 31 losses. Excluding his first three years, his record is 57 and 14. Over the past four seasons MSU has won the Outback Bowl, Buffalo Wild Wings bowl, Rose Bowl, and Cotton Bowl (which had a classic comeback victory).

My Dad went to Purdue so I grew up a fan of Purdue’s football and basketball teams. During those years, they were actually pretty good. Drew Brees, who went on to a superstar career in the NFL including a Super Bowl victory, led Purdue to a Big Ten Championship and a Rose Bowl. A few years later, Kyle Orton led Purdue to four straight bowl games before having a decent NFL career. These days, Purdue football is dreadful. Current head coach Darrell Hazell is 5-23, and his predecessor Danny Hope went a mediocre 22-28. So far this season they have only beaten Indiana State and lost to Marshall, Virginia Tech, and Bowling Green.

One weakness in MSU’s team this year is the secondary. Michigan State’s pass defense is ranked 114th out of 128 FBS teams. This is simply abysmal, especially considering one of our four games was against Navy which is ranked dead last in passing offense. Despite Purdue’s rough start to the season, their passing offense is a formidable foe. If they can reduce their interceptions (7 in 4 games), their 257 passing yards per game is more than enough to win a Big Ten game. Tomorrow all eyes will be on MSU’s cornerbacks and safeties to perform.

This year MSU has started the season with four straight wins and an amazing second place ranking nationally. Tomorrow’s match-up against Purdue will be one of many cupcake games against Big Ten teams including Rutgers and Indiana. In two weeks we will face off with a Michigan team defying preseason expectations after a 31-0 victory over BYU under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh. After defeating Oregon (ranked seventh at the time but now out of the top 25 after a brutal 62-20 loss to Utah) the match-ups against Michigan and Ohio State on November 21st are the two remaining tests to prove we are contenders for a national championship.

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3-3-5 Defense

My high school football team ran a 3-3-5 defense. This means that there were three down linemen, three linebackers directly behind the linemen, and five defensive backs (two cornerbacks, one free safety, and two “spurs” or strong safeties). Your typical football defense is a 4-3 or 3-4, which will have four linemen and three linebackers or vice versa. This leaves four defensive backs, two cornerbacks and two safeties.

What makes the 3-3-5 defense unique is there are only six players lined up in the box and only three on the line of scrimmage. However, there are five defensive backs to cover the pass or blitz, which is one more than a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme. This means the 3-3-5 is suited to defend against offenses that pass more than they run.

Running a 3-3-5 defense in high school was really unwise. Generally high school offenses will be either run-heavy or balanced with play action and short passes making up a majority of the passing game. High school offenses with a quarterback who can throw the deep ball accurately, and talented wide receivers who run good routes and catch the ball well, are rare. At least, a lot more rare than teams with what you need to run the ball: a competent offensive line and a running back who can power ahead for at least four yards a carry.

Stopping the run in a 3-3-5 was difficult. Five offensive linemen faced off against our three down linemen. By the time linebackers came up to stop the run, the offense usually had a solid hole and momentum. In hindsight, I think the 3-3-5 places a high priority on linebackers filling their gaps based on their read of the guard. I was taught to read my keys and react but I don’t think this was emphasized enough by our coaches.

Unsurprisingly, we had a decent pass defense but we were pretty poor at stopping the run. I would be interested to see our past statistics against run and pass players. I also wonder if my coaches ever did that. Each offseason we had the opportunity to switch to a new defensive system, such as the standard 4-3 and 3-4 or even a 4-4 scheme. We switched from the Wing T offense to a Spread offense during my time playing football at Saline High School. I have mixed feelings about that switch (I think it worked out the first year, but we should have switched back to the Wing T or something similar for my Senior year due to personal) which I may write about some other time.

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Elaine Vechorik: Unsung Hero

During today’s lunch at the State Policy Network Annual Meeting, the Vernon Kreeble Foundation awarded their Unsung Hero Award. The goal of this award, as I understand it, is to recognize an unconventional yet successful hero of individual liberty. These heroes aren’t your standard think tank leaders or political party officials. Past award winners (I believe the award is now five years old) include a ‘government watchdog’ and an independent daycare provider who took on a government union.

This year’s award winner Elaine Vechorik started a business with her husband. As their business succeeded and stabilized, she found herself with free time which she choose to fill with pro-liberty political activism. In her three years as an activist in Mississippi, she has rolled back restrictions on gun laws, ended a money-grabbing licensing scheme, and is now working on fighting civil asset forfeiture.

Elaine’s remarks on stage were the highlight of my day. She highlighted her successes as an activist as well as her failures. Along with her failures she offered lessons learned from those failures. She told us that at first, she merely focused on writing about issues and argued that merely writing on an issue (even calling out white papers, an old standard for SPN groups) will not cause change. She urged the audience to avoid groups that value fundraising success and/or votes over true success (which I think she would define as change). Finally, she suggested avoiding constant arguing and complaining. Ignoring national issues she could not change and focusing on local and state issues, she told us, was the best change she made as an activist.

For me, the biggest takeaway from Elaine’s remarks was the importance of training and welcoming new activists. From the audience I could feel her past frustration trying to break in to the world of political activism. I also felt her good faith to learn with an open mind and develop the skills necessary to achieve change.

Public choice economics allows us to use economics to understand how politics actually works. It demonstrates how our assumptions and intuitions about politics can lead us to ineffective methods of political activism. Hopefully, there are a number of humble and eager persons ready to fight for liberty. For those of us who are ‘professionals’ in the field, it is vital that we respectfully and kindly work to prepare and provide the proper training necessary for effective political activism.

Congratulations Elaine. Your award seems well-deserved and your remarks were inspiring. I wish you the best in your continued activism for liberty in Mississippi.
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Start of State Policy Network Annual Meeting 2015

I am on my way to the State Policy Network’s (SPN) Annual Meeting today. SPN is the network of state-based free market think tanks in the United States. I have previously attended this event in Amelia Island, FL and Oklahoma City. This year the event is being hosted by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy in Grand Rapids, MI. I spent the summer of 2012 as an intern at the Mackinac Center working on their Michigan Capitol Confidential publication. My work from that time, a series of investigative journalism pieces of government investments in green energy projects, is available online here.

I attended my first SPN Annual Meeting through their Generation Liberty Fellowship for young people interested in free market think tank work. I hosted a session on student outreach for think tanks on behalf of SFL. I think it was a moderately successful session. The next year I attended entirely on behalf of SFL, again running the student outreach session.

This year I have four primary areas of focus. The first is professional development through sessions on management and fundraising. The second is fundraising through meeting with new, potential, and current SFL donors. Third is maintaining SFL’s presence at our exhibitor booth. My final focus is networking with existing and new contacts, updating them on SFL’s work and my current role as well as learning of new projects from other organizations.

I am very excited for this conference and hope to gain a lot from my participation. This is my first non-SFL libertarian event in months. Following the conference, Kelly and I will meet up and head to Michigan State to attend the football game against Purdue with my old roommates and their significant others: Nick, Jay, Kara, Kyle, and Kate. On Sunday, we will celebrate my 24th birthday with my family. This should be a great week!