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Gattaca

Last night I watched the movie Gattaca. I had never heard of it until Scott Alexander wrote about it on his blog Slate Star Codex. I really enjoyed the movie although I think the message the filmmakers were going for was a bit hollow.

The premise: In a society where parents can control the genetics of their offspring, a non-genetically engineered man poses as a man with “high genes” to become an astronaut and fly to Titan.

Apparently, at its 1997 release it dramatically raised the visibility of a genetic engineering future. Today, I hear about trans-humanism fairly often (that’s also partially a result of running in weirdo-libertarian circles)

My attitude towards genetic engineering is that of my attitude towards pretty much all technology: sounds great, I’m sure there will be some downsides, but with enough time and trial & error individuals will put it to good use. While I think a society as depicted in Gattaca, where you can’t get a high-status job without high-status genes, is far-fetched, I could see the general thrust being true.

But I don’t think you’ll see employers taking peoples’ blood samples and running them through a computer (beep boop beep) to make decisions. You’ll still still be looking for who gets the job done best and, yes, genetics will help put people ahead in a lot of situations. But if genetics isn’t everything even in professional sports, I sure don’t see it being everything in astronautics. Or any other field.

You should read Scott’s blog post. If you’re terrified by the future presented in Gattaca, look around you for the similarities we hold today.

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Maps & Atlases

Last night I saw the band Maps & Atlases perform at Rock and Roll Hotel. They are a band I have followed a bit throughout their career. I like their second album Beware and Be Grateful so I was glad they played a bunch of songs from it. Earlier this month they released a new album Lightlessness Is Nothing New. I listened to it once yesterday before going to the show. I enjoyed one song but was not very impressed. They didn’t really focus on it during the concert and I was not exactly intrigued to listen to it much more. However, they put on an enjoyable performance.

They have been known as a “math rock” band, and that showed from the beginning as singer/guitarist Dave Davison showcased his tapping skills on guitar in the opening song. Drummer Chris Hainey also put on an impressive performance with a lot of power behind it. The crowd was largely stoic, although they got more energetic for Old & Gray / Fever.

The opening act, Prism Tats, was downright painful. But I guess that’s what you get for an opening act at a half-filled Tuesday evening concert.

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2017-2018 NBA Win Predictions

The 2017-2018 NBA season begins tomorrow night! Here are my predictions for how many games each team will win this season. Below is my expected wins for each team, the Vegas line, and the difference between my prediction and the line.

Teams I am really high on: Timberwolves, Cavaliers, Knicks, Rockets, and Hawks.
Teams I am really low on: Lakers, Trailblazers, Celtics, Bucks, Clippers, Grizzlies, Pistons, Spurs.

Golden State Warriors (67) Same historical greatness, snooze. They’re probably better than last year, too.
Cleveland Cavaliers (62) They absolutely won the trade with Boston and will not miss Kyrie. The only question is how many games will Thomas play in.
Minnesota Timberwolves (60) This is probably a bug in my model, but it’s worth keeping in mind that Towns and Butler are both elite and Wiggins is no slouch.
Houston Rockets (60) I’m suspicious of the Chris Paul pickup but this roster is really talented and D’Antoni is one of the best coaches in the NBA.
Oklahoma City Thunder (53) They had a huge offseason and are going to be much, much better than last year but Carmelo probably won’t add that many wins.
San Antonio Spurs (50) Of teams in the top I think the Spurs are most dependent on their star, if Kawhi misses extended time they could be in serious trouble.
Washington Wizards (48) IMO the best of this 3-way tie, I think they’ll actually make it to the Conference Finals. The Frazier addition at backup PG should be a quiet but big win.
Toronto Raptors (48) They will do the same old thing, which may frustrate their fanbase, but they’ll feast on the East and fight for the 2 seed.
Boston Celtics (48) So I have a 3-way tie here and I get that looks like a cop out but that’s just what the machines tell me to predict. But for Boston I’m low on Kyrie and they’ll play a lot of young players. Horford is a regression candidate.
Denver Nuggets (47) This team is young and exciting and plays amazing offense but that’s only enough to get you the 6 seed in the West. Look for the 6th best offense but 22nd defense.
Utah Jazz (43) People will tune in to Jazz games and have no other option than to recognize Gobert is the best defensive player in the NBA. 43 feels high but they’ll likely just feed on weak Eastern Conference teams.
Charlotte Hornets (43) He may not look that great this season but I’m really high on Malik Monk, I think he’ll be the best player from this draft.
Miami Heat (43) The team profile they have created for themselves is an incredibly deep roster full of professional NBA players worth playing but none of them are even remotely a household name.
New Orleans Pelicans (42) The great Twin Towers experiment will continue to be so-so and the Rondo addition will be a disaster for both him and Cousins.
Milwaukee Bucks (41) Giannis is an MVP candidate but they will dearly miss Paker. Also I think Brogdon is a dark horse regression candidate.
Los Angeles Clippers (38) Small ball has become so ingrained in how I view the NBA that I think of the Clippers and I think “who do they even have?” The answer is Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordon, the question is are they valuable without Chris Paul or not.
New York Knicks (37) This team is probably a dumpster fire but Carmelo leaving is probably a good thing, Porzingis is really good, and there are a handful of other teams in the East that are worse.
Dallas Mavericks (36) I really don’t have anything to say about the Mavs. Dennis Smith?
Philadelphia 76ers (35) Ok the hype for this team is way overblown. I think Simmons will look great except for shooting, Fultz will be a serviceable disaster, and Embiid will look amazing in 45 games. If he plays over 60 I think he wins MVP.
Portland Trailblazers (35) I bet they wish they could trade conferences with the Raptors. They’re basically the Raptors except they pay Even Turner $16 million (ouch).
Detroit Pistons (34) Drummond is going to be about as impactful as Joakim Noah in two season at this piace. Reggie Jackson will be improved from last year, though.
Indiana Pacers (33) So they absolutely flunked the Paul George sweepstakes and my cynical take is they wanted Oladipo to sell tickets because Indiana. They’ll be bad but Oladipo and Turner is a decent enough pair compared to some of the teams below they’ll avoid being a dumpster fire.
Memphis Grizzlies (32) I can’t really figure out what the Grizzlies are trying to accomplish, I am suspicious they are making a serious effort at winning basketball games.
Orlando Magic (31) On the other hand the Grizzlies could be so, so much worse. They’ll lose lots of games by 5, 6 points but the Magic will get blown out night in and night out. This roster is so bad and I want to see Aaron Gordon play somewhere else already.
Phoenix Suns (29) The 76ers of the West, they are building up a decent arsenal of young talent that could have an impact in four years.
Atlanta Hawks (27) Bad without impressive assets, I guess they just have to be glad of the plague that is Dwight Howard.
Brooklyn Nets (26) They have no incentive to tank but after losing Brook Lopez, their current roster is going to struggle to win games. My model is probably underestimating Russell’s positive impact, but only slightly, and while I’m high on that pickup I’m low on the Crabbe addition.
Sacramento Kings (25) There is no real difference maker on this team, Buddy Hield will probably be their best player.
Chicago Bulls (24) Please kill me.
Los Angeles Lakers (23) I get that they have a large, rabid, media-connected fanbase but my goodness is this hype train out of control or what? This roster is bad, they have nobody who can shoot, and Lonzo is going to be a great NBA player just not this season.

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Launching PyPardot4

I’m an open source programmer!

As part of my responsibilities at IHS, I am the administrator of  our marketing automation platform Pardot. Pardot is a Salesforce product and it integrates well with IHS’ Salesforce database. However, there are elements of the the database that we want to use in Pardot but Pardot could not access.

There is a Pardot API, which means one can theoretically create computer code to perform actions with Pardot beyond the official features. I found PyPardot, a Python package for accessing the Pardot API. However, it was written for an outdated version of the API and the author is no longer maintaining the package. Luckily, the author released the package as an open source project on GitHub.

Over the past few days, I have updated the package for compatibility with the latest version (4) of the Pardot API! It is now available on PyPI and the code & reference wiki are available on GitHub.

I have already used my new package PyPardot4 to accomplish some of our needs at IHS and I am excited to put it to further use. However, I have already learned so much including:

  • How to call an API from Python
  • What a fully object-oriented programming project looks like from top to bottom
  • How to contribute to and create open source programming projects on GitHub
  • How to upload a Python package to PyPi (the Python Package Index)
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Don’t Just Study, Practice

In my work on marketing operations for the Institute for Humane Studies, I am working with our fundraising team on an online advertising campaign. We have posted ads on websites where potential IHS donors might visit. When people click on our ads, they are taken to landing pages on IHS’ Learn Liberty website.

Landing pages are web pages designed to drive visitors to action. In this case, we want folks to sign up for email updates from Learn Liberty and make a donation to the project.

We are disappointed in the results so far, so we got on the phone with an agency helping us with the project. It turns out a decent number of people are clicking on our ads and checking out our landing pages, but they are not signing up for emails or making donations.

Why?

Our representatives at the agency went through our landing pages with us and pointed out a few changes we could make to possibly improve performance. These were pretty simple changes such as moving the email signup form towards the top and putting our calls to action in an eye-catching gold font.

I should have known better. In fact, I did know better.

As part of getting up to speed for this job I have been researching and studying digital marketing, including building landing pages. Having your calls to action easy to find and “above the fold” is basic advice I already learned.

But I hadn’t put it into practice. I hadn’t built a landing page for a real fundraising project before.

As I continue to do this work and build my skills, I expect I’ll make mistakes in building landing pages and other areas. At some point, the basics of building effective landing pages might become automatic so I can focus on testing more elements for best performance.

Studying will help you try but mastery will only come from practice.

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Politics Is Rarely About Policy

Theresa May gambled and lost. When Brexit was unexpectedly passed by voters, May saw a political opportunity and rode to power as Prime Minister by shifting from opposition to support of Brexit. It appeared as though she would benefit from this populist wave in the UK for years to come.

This was just the first of some surprise populist electoral victories in recent years. We of course saw Donald Trump elected President. In France, voters discarded the major right-wing and major left-wing parties forcing a general election between center-left Macron and the populist ethno-nationalist right candidate Le Pen. I even think the surprising rise of Socialist Corbyn taking away May’s majority in the UK fits the trend.

What is the trend that explains the rise of both right-wing Donald Trump and left-wing Jeremy Corbyn? I think it’s the middle finger. Seriously! People are angry. Trust in government is low. What we are seeing is an era in which voters are more willing than ever to reject whoever is currently in office. Step into the ballot box, raise your middle finger, rinse and repeat. That’s how you end up with Theresa May possibly being the shortest-serving Prime Minister in history (we shall see).

I constantly encounter the assumption that populism is synonymous with a set of policy changes, particularly opposition to free trade or immigration along with support for nationalism. This exaggerates the importance of policy within politics. Voters are rationally ignorant. Political stances are often attempts to signal and boost one’s status. Because most people have so little ability to actually change the outcome, politics is closer to a professional sports game than it is to an actual conversation on governance.

This populist wave isn’t about bringing coal jobs back to West Virginia or a “hard Brexit” over a “soft Brexit.” It’s about using one’s vote to say “I’m angry” (to the small degree that voting allows you to make a statement). If you are surprised that Donald Trump’s base continues to support him even though he hasn’t delivered on his campaign promises like a border wall, repealing Obamacare, and tax reform, look elsewhere. He has delivered, just outside of policy. He makes left-wingers mad and he has damaged the media’s reputation. These are the non-policy desires of angry voters.

This trend is good news and bad news for libertarians. We are living in an era of Big Government (in the US I’d argue since FDR) and if voters want a change, libertarianism could be that change. But keep in mind my main point here, politics is rarely about policy. A libertarian campaign likely won’t be about libertarian policy, which is uncomfortable for most libertarians. On the other hand, there is evidence suggesting that low trust in the government is dangerously harmful for society. The erosion of institutional trust can lead to authoritarian populism.

As a footnote, I have seen many pundits take away from May’s recent failure that British voters support a soft Brexit over a hard Brexit. Maybe they do, maybe the don’t. Regardless, I don’t think a policy distinction should be your first assumption about the motivating factor. Look elsewhere.

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What I’m Working On

Three months ago I started a new job at the Institute for Humane Studies (IHS). My role is focused on digital marketing, in particular marketing automation and marketing analytics. So far I have found the work challenging, interesting, and rewarding.

Marketing automation is the use of software to “automatically” handle marketing tasks. For example, if a potential customer visits your webpage for a product but doesn’t purchase it, you can automatically send them an email with more information (assuming they have granted us permission to email them, of course!) Done properly, you can connect all areas of digital marketing: email, social media, websites, etc. I came in with the preparation for our marketing automation platform finished and was responsible for launching it with training and support. For the most part, this has gone smoothly and it is now used daily to great success. There are more powerful features we haven’t scratched the surface of yet.

Marketing analytics is simply the collection and analysis of marketing data. Working at a non-profit, sales can be a little tricky to define. While a sale is straightforward for our fundraising team, for our programs team it is a more complex question. At IHS, “sales” are more or less participations in our programs, such as PhD scholarships and research seminars. On this front, I have made progress in our ability to collect marketing data in an accessible manner. The next step is to analyze this data and use insights to improve our work.

At IHS we engage with students and professors around the country to encourage the study and advancement of freedom. If you look at higher education today, there is a dire need for the spread of classical liberal ideas throughout academia. I’m proud to be playing a part in furthering this mission while gaining valuable experience in marketing techniques along the way.

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NBA Players To Watch

We are less than two weeks away from the 2015-2016 NBA season! I think last season went down as one of the best NBA seasons of all time, certainly the best in my young memory. While this season will almost certainly be less exciting than last year, there’s a number of storylines, teams, and players to keep an eye on. Here are the Top 10 players I’m excited to watch this season. 
10: Kevin Durant I wouldn’t say I’m actually excited to watch Kevin Durant play for the Warriors, but I’m certainly curious to see how it goes. One thing we have learned about KD from this offseason is that he’s happy for things to be easy for him, so there is the possibility he has a personal dropoff and allows those around him to carry the load this season. But more than likely, the Warriors will torch the league even more than they did than last season.

9: Giannis Antetokounmpo The 6’11” Greek Freak will be playing Point Guard this season. The Bucks will likely struggle to even break .500, especially with Middleton hurt, but the Point Giannis experiment will be fun to watch. At just 21 years old, Giannis has as much potential as anyone in the league to win MVP in five years (around the age Durant was in his MVP season). 
8:  Nikola Jokic My description is Jokic is a lot like his game, short and sweet: he plays a quiet game but no big man passes like Jokic. 
7: E’Twaun Moore I have been of E’Twaun’s since he played for Purdue from 2007 to 2011. After a breakout year for my Bulls in his fifth year in the NBA, Moore landed a $34m contract with the Pelicans. While I’m sad to see him leave Chicago, I hope to see him have an even bigger year with a bigger role.
6: Anthony Davis Another contender for possible MVP winner in the next few years, Davis is the best all-around big man in basketball. Against the Pistons back in February Davis had 59 points, 20 rebounds, and 4 assists for the fourth-highest game score in regular season history. Yeah, this guy is worth watching. 
5: Joel Embiid After being drafted third overall in 2014 by the 76ers, Joel “The Process” Embiid is now recovered from a broken foot bone. Based on his preseason footage, he has the potential to go down as an all-time great player. Three things to watch with Embiid: How well does he develop as a player (less turnovers, smarter post play, does he become a real perimeter threat)? What effect does playing for Philadelphia have on his development in terms of his skills and mindset? Will injuries continue to plague him as has happened to so many other promising front court players? 
4: Karl-Anthony Towns The reigning Rookie of the Year, Towns and the Timberwolves will likely take a big step forward under the direction of Coach Tom Thibodeau. Towns and teammate Andrew Wiggins (his predecessor as Rookie of the Year) form an exciting core that could take the Western Conference by storm if the current Warriors core disassembles in the next few seasons.
3: Denzel Valentine Naturally I’m excited to watch a former star for my Michigan State Spartans drafted in the first round by my Chicago Bulls. Valentine has looked alright in summer league and preseason, getting to the rim at a decent rate but showing weaknesses defensively. It remains to be seen how the Bulls will utilize Valentine. Will he be a backup ballhandler when Rondo and Wade are on the bench? Or will he come in to provide outside scoring for the perimeter-challenged Rondo/Wade/Butler trio, considering he was a 44% 3-point shooter last season?
2: James Harden I think Harden is the most dominant offensive player in the NBA, even more so than Curry. He gets a bad rap for his poor defensive effort but I can’t blame a guy who has to carry nearly the entire offensive load for his team night in and night out. With Harden officially taking on more of a Point Guard role and the Rockets bringing in Coach Mike D’Antoni, an offensive juggernaut who can take Harden to another level, he should be a a highlight machine. This Rockets team will try to answer the question: How successful can you be as an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team?
1: Russell Westbrook Hustle Bestbrook. Muscle Chestbrook. Knuckle Westbrick. Westbrook is the most exciting basketball player to watch because he gives 200% on every play, every night. But it isn’t always roses with Westbrook. He has a habit of making unwise gambles defensively or chucking up bad shots to try and take over a game. Live by the Russ, die by the Russ. After this offseason, I hope Billy Donavon can channel Westbrook’s passion towards an MVP season with the Thunder contending come the post-season. Regardless of how their season goes, Russ will be must-see TV this year. 
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The Libertarian Party’s Shallow Bench

Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee for President, had his second major gaffe recently. Johnson did not have an answer when asked to name a foreign leader he admires. Josh Barro wants to know, “who are these people who lost to Gary Johnson?”

Barro has a point. While Johnson has some great qualifications, including serving as Governor of New Mexico and successfully starting a construction company, he has not done a great job with the opportunities granted to him such as town hall specials on CNN. How was Johnson picked for this?

Johnson has been the clear choice for the Libertarian Party since he dropped out of the Republican Party for the Libertarians in the 2012 election. I wonder if this decision is similar to what happened to the Democratic Party, who have protected Hillary Clinton as the clear choice candidate for years leading up to this election. Even just 18 months ago, it would have been hard to predict the opportunity for a libertarian candidate to get so much attention thanks to the deep unpopularity of the Republican and Democratic nominees.

A mentor of mine likes to talk about keeping a strong bench. The analogy here is to a sports team. Even if you currently have a strong lineup, you want to make sure you have strong backups to call upon if something happens to your stars or if you need additional assets.

The Libertarian Party has a shallow bench. Well the Libertarian Party has lots of problems, including that our political system is designed to keep out third parties. But I think it’s clear there was little thought or time spent on growing the potential pool of people to make the most of the opportunity put before the Libertarian Party this cycle.

One of the most exciting aspects of my job at Students For Liberty is that we are growing that bench. I think it is only a matter of time before a nominee for President is a Students For Liberty alumni. But as someone deeply skeptical of politics and the potential for any one person, even the American President, to create lasting change for liberty, I am even more excited about how we are growing other benches. We at Students For Liberty are seeking to support new superstars and grow benches in academia, business, civil society, and many other arenas.

By the way, even with his embarrassing moments I think Johnson is clearly a superior choice to Clinton and Trump. I’m excited to vote for Johnson this November. But, I can’t help but wonder if there are other people out there who could have done a better job this cycle than Johnson…

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Trump Troubled By Police Misconduct?

Donald Trump has said he is “very troubled” by a recent incident in which an unarmed black man (with his hands up) was shot by Oklahoma police. Some may find this surprising given Trump’s previous choices to condemn Black Lives Matter and strongly support American police forces.

It seems to me that, at least on this issue, Trump has nailed the median voter’s position. Make a point of unconditionally supporting the police, and when forced with evidence so heinous you can’t deny, admit there’s a problem. And the solution? The police “will just have to get better and better and better”. 

This sure sounds like the median voters I have encountered discussing this issue.

I’m not opposed to a societal expectation of respecting the police. If I had to guess it’s probably essential to an orderly and peaceful society*. But if “respecting the police” is used as a way to stop the conversation then it’s a problem. There are really important policy changes we need to prevent bad cops and to help good cops do a better job.

Some of these changes are best described by Radley Balko in his book Rise of the Warrior Cop. They include:

  1. Rolling back or ending the War on Drugs
  2. Transparency, such as the filming of police conduct and records of police officers engaged in violent encounters 
  3. Community policing (“taking cops out of patrol cars to walk beats and become a part of the communities they serve”, p. 325)
  4. Accountability. As like most public sector unions, police unions have been very successful at shielding officers from being held accountable for their misconduct by passing “law enforcement bill of rights” which restrict their liability on the job. 
  5. Last but not least, changing police culture. This is of course a tall order, but it is just as essential as any policy change. 

If implemented, I think these policy changes can reduce violence, improve societal respect for the police, and reduce grievances of activist groups.

*Of course, so is an expectation that police officers follow the rule of law