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Update on NBA Game Log

Now that the NBA season is underway, I am using the NBA game log tool I built. This allows me to track the games I watch and the notes I take. I’m primarily interested in tracking how much I have watched of each team so I can keep an eye on the entire league.

This idea was included in my previous projects post. Last season I tracked the games I watched in a spreadsheet. So far this app is easier to use, especially for looking at the data as a whole, and adds the capability of logging notes. 

I built this app using the Javascript MEAN stack: MongoDB, Express.js, Angular, and Node.js. This was my most ambitious Javascript project to date. I have learned a lot, especially regarding API design. I’m proud of what I have built so far but have more I would like to do such as:

  • Better design and interface
  • Password reset for users
  • Different analysis dashboards, such as for a particular team or player
  • Customizable sharing options for different users

Anyone can create an account and use the app but I mostly built it for my NBA viewing and for my Javascript experience. 

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Pickup Basketball and Spontaneous Order

One of my favorite hobbies, pickup basketball, is a great example of a key libertarian concept: spontaneous order. While it is of a much smaller scale than the market economy, it shows how rules and norms evolve to peacefully resolve conflict without an authority figure.

Growing up, I played pickup basketball with my friends. You could resolve a dispute by running home to a parent, but this was an unpopular move especially as we got older. Since we all knew each other, it was relatively easy to coordinate our behavior. We also had repeated interactions so one unethical action could have long-standing effects.

When I went to Michigan State University, my roommate introduced me to the active pickup basketball scene on campus. I could go to the main recreation center and find a game to play at any time. There would be up to around 100 guys (and sometimes girls) looking to play on the 6 courts in the building.

While I never saw an official authority figure around, everyone seemed to know the rules. 

You may be thinking, it’s just basketball, what disputes are there to resolve? Don’t you all know the rules of basketball?

Well, here are a few questions you need to settle for pickup basketball. How long do games last? How are teams picked? How are fouls determined? 

At MSU, the first game of a session would last until a team had 15 points and repeated games would be to 13 (I have no idea where this rule came from, but everyone seemed to know it). Generally the winning team would have to win by 2 points, although on crowded days you might agree beforehand to forgo this requirement.

Picking teams generally went as follows: Everyone takes a three-point shot and the first two to succeed are captains. They then take turns picking players. After that, someone calls “next”. This means they are the captain of a team to challenge the winning team. If he has picked four teammates but someone else also wants to play, they get “next after”, which means captaining the next team to challenge the court’s winning team. 

Now for the hard part, how to fairly determine foul calls without a neutral referee. The offense calls fouls, but there are no free throws; the offense just gets another possession. Also, the instant a foul is called the ball is dead. If the ball goes in the basket, the offense gets another possession but misses out on the sure points. You can’t have your cake and eat it too. 

For unusually controversial disputes, you “shoot for it”. The person making a claim (for example, that the opposing player went out of bounds) takes a three-point shot. If it goes in, they win the argument; if they miss, they lose the argument.

I find these solutions interesting because they are examples of how through spontaneous order, strangers can solve problems without a central authority. We didn’t need a president or voting process. These solutions evolved through trial and error and they did a pretty good job of allowing people who didn’t know each other to play basketball. 

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Coffee

On Monday I came into the office planning to give up coffee.

Not for good, just for a week or two. For the past couple of years my routine has been to have three or four cups a day. As far as I know that’s not a health risk, but I figured a break wouldn’t hurt. At the very least, it’ll give the caffeine a stronger effect again. 

After about an hour into Monday, my boss’ boss walked into my office. My boss is out this week due to a death in the family. On Tuesday he was to give a presentation to one of our organizations’ donors. I was asked to fill in for him.

I had never given the presentation before. But I have seen my boss give it once, I know the material well, and I enjoy public speaking. So I said yes.

Immediately, I felt it was a bad week to be giving up coffee.

I spent most of Monday rehearsing. Despite a few small hiccups, the presentation went well on Tuesday.

I still wish I had had some coffee in me. 

Last night I played pickup basketball. Normally the gym where I play is fairly crowded and it’s hard to get in more than two or three games. Last night I played five games. It was great fun.

This morning, I could use a cup of coffee.

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Radical Candor

I’m reading Radical Candor: Be A Kick-Ass Boss Without Losing Your Humanity by Kim Scott. In a nutshell, the message of the book is: Be honest. That sounds simple enough, but how often do you avoid being honest because it is difficult or uncomfortable? I know I’m guilty.

So far I have found the book helpful but unsurprising. Being honest makes sense to me. Giving people negative feedback before things spiral out of control makes sense to me. I already knew this.

As I thought about how I can be better in implementing the ideas of the book, I realized radical candor requires clarity of mind. You can’t give honest feedback if you don’t know your honest thoughts. 

Clarity of mind is something I struggle with. I like to plan and execute projects but I’m uncomfortable reflecting. I don’t enjoy introspection.

It can be tempting to not give negative feedback because you are afraid of the discomfort this might cause. I can think of times where I not only held back feedback, but my brain effectively tricked itself into removing my critique from my mind. Sensing there would be no utility in the information, my brain discarded it. I might be crazy, but I think the brain plays tricks like that.

So I’m not only thinking about how to use radical candor, I’m thinking about strategies for keeping my mind clear. As I previously wrote, I meditate regularly (well, I have let myself slip and it’s now semi-regularly). This blog helps too. After trying to write regularly for only a few weeks, I can tell you writing is a challenging but rewarding method for gaining mental clarity.  

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End NBA Max Contracts

If I could change one thing about the NBA, it would be ending maximum contracts. 

The NBA collective bargaining agreement between the Players Association and team owners governs player contracts. There are many complicated rules including the maximum amount a player can be paid. Complicating matters further, this maximum amount depends on a number of factors such as seniority and all-star awards.

This means some players, the absolute superstars, cannot be paid market value by their team. They are still paid more than $30 million per season so there is no need to feel sorry for them. But teams that manage to land one of the best players in the league are able to do so at a discount. 

The Golden State Warriors pay Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant two of the highest salaries in the league, but both are likely underpaid given they are two of the five best players. If the Warriors were forced to pay market value for Curry and Durant, they would either keep one but not the other or effectively gut the rest of their roster.

Teams also have a maximum amount they can spend on their total team, called the salary cap. While some teams spend more than others, the difference between the rich and poor teams is much smaller than the difference in the MLB*, where there is no salary cap.

I’d like to get rid of the maximum value for individual contracts. Since teams that land a maximum contract player get that players’ production but pay a below-market rate, the team is effectively receiving a subsidy from the rest of the league. If you land a great player, your team is already doing fine. There is no need to subsidize it. 

If you’re worried about contracts getting out of hand, I’m fine with keeping the league-wide salary cap in place. That ensures teams are at least somewhat balanced in their total roster and spending power. 

Some NBA analysts expect a proposal to remove the maximum limit on contracts would be opposed by the players union. While lifting the restriction would help the small number of superstars, it would likely mean less money paid to the larger pool of average players. As a compromise, I would propose a tax and spend policy within the union.

As an example, the Lakers could pay LeBron James market value ($100 million?) and the union could have policies dictating that an overwhelming majority of James’ pay above $35 million (roughly the maximum contract right now) gets redistributed throughout the union. This may seem like the same outcome as the status quo. The difference is the Lakers would have less money available to spend on other superstars. 

Keeping team salary caps while lifting the ceiling on individual contracts would help competitive balance by using market forces. What’s not to like? 

(*) Technically the MLB has a “luxury tax” but it has mainly been limited to the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox. The NBA has a luxury tax which is incurred more frequently.  

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Self Esteem

Did you know a recent survey found half of all college students had attended mental health counseling? And that in the past two years, suicide attempts for teenage boys are up 25 percent? And for teenage girls, 70 percent?

I learned that listening to Johnathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff, authors of The Coddling of the American Mind, on Free Thoughts with Trevor Burrus. As Haidt puts it, “this is a tidal wave of anxiety and depression.”

What the hell is going on?

After listening to the podcast I ordered Haidt and Lukianoffs’ book and have yet to read it, but this seems to be their argument: We are teaching children poor ways to cope with unpleasant situations. We have taken away free play from children, given them a never-ending world of social media, and bureaucratized every element of life on campus. Come adulthood, we have not prepared them for how to deal with situations as mundane as disagreement.

This makes a lot of sense to me but I want to focus on a related concept: self-esteem. 

We all need self-esteem. Life is a miserable slog if you don’t believe you have anything of value to offer to the world. 

The risk to self-esteem is how social media contributes to this anxiety crisis. As Haidt and Lukianoff put it, imagine the worst aspects of high school didn’t end when the bell rang, but followed you home at night through Facebook and Twitter. The self-doubt, the comparisons to others, the manipulation, it’s inescapable.

This sounds right to me and it drove home to me what I think is a serious problem. School is bad for self-esteem. 

I am a very confident person. I have been for almost all of my life, with the exception of junior high. I was really hung up on the desire to be popular, particularly in the sense of high status. It was a zero-sum game. Most people I know would say the same. We can look back as adults and realize our middle school popularity did not determine our adulthood happiness, but in those years it felt all so important.

For years I have been intrigued by the idea of homeschooling. I have not had direct experience with it but my handful of friends who were homeschooled are all “well-adjusted” and speak positively of their homeschooling experience.

A part of me finds school very strange. Our plan for how to help children become adults is to put them all in a building together, where they form their own little society and hierarchies, where the expectations are very different from those of adulthood? My observations of homeschooling are that they are a bit better about their daily routines reflecting “real life”. The current system makes sense for us adults, it’s just specialization and division of labor for tending to children, but I’m skeptical it is best for the kids.

This is probably my most jumbled blog post yet. I have a bunch of thoughts on these topics that I’m still trying to work through and clearly articulate. There are of course other factors, such as a parenting culture increasingly uncomfortable with free play. For now I’ll close with this: While I think we are teaching young people to over diagnose anxiety there is a real crisis at the current moment. The way we go about school is hurting, rather than helping, the problem.

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I Don’t Work In Politics

When I go home to Michigan or Chicago, I get some common questions from family and friends. The most frequent is: How do you like working in politics? 

In the words of Lucille Bluth, “I don’t understand the question and I won’t respond to it.”

I had one job in politics as a legislative assistant for a Michigan state representative. It was a pretty good job, a great one at the time (I was in college). I mostly answered emails from constituents and helped my boss draft legislation. 

When you work for a politician, you help them campaign. You also help them campaign for members of the same party. I had no interest in that. 

Politics is war. Now I don’t mind fighting, but there aren’t many battles worth fighting. As a general rule, politicians are amorphous blobs willing to do whatever it takes to ensure one thing: re-election.

We can talk about the separation of powers, how to interpret the constitution, the proper role of government, but at the end of the day politics is about gaining and wielding power. Nobody exemplifies this better than Donald Trump. Oh, and you’re kidding yourself if you think the Democrats are innocent of this. The weakest political criticisms are those of hypocrisy. People are hypocritical in politics all the time and there is no punishment for it. Political actors do not care about rules and ensuring those rules are followed. They care about promoting those of their political tribe. That matters more than procedural concerns.

I don’t work in politics. So what is it I do?

I have mostly worked at places that deal with ideas. I worked at a think tank, a student leadership network, and am now at an academic institute. The exact vision and strategy of each organization has been distinct. They all share the goal of fighting the battle of ideas and shifting the intellectual conversation which, in turn, would change the behavior of politicians.

If you have asked me this question and I have responded angrily, I apologize. I know you mean well. And I understand for most people, there is no difference between politicians debating policy and eggheads at think tanks doing the same thing.

Politicians have a seat at the decision-making table. Their power to create change is, in theory, vast. But they are so constrained by interest groups, public opinion, and political alliances their votes are often predetermined for them. 

Us eggheads admittedly don’t have that seat at the decision-making table. But it’s overrated.

Ideas matter. And breathtaking ideas, like those of Adam Smith or Ayn Rand, have amazing staying power. 

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Chess

My earliest memories of chess date back to the fifth grade when my friend Josh and I would play at school. Occasionally I can convince people to play me at my family’s cottage, but that’s a week or two out of the summer. Luckily it is 2018 and having nobody to play against is no longer a problem. We have the internet.

Right now I’m hooked on playing chess online, particularly on lichess. My friend Kyle and I have slowly been playing games that take us about a day (he’s up thirteen games to five). I have played about one hundred games against random opponents. My openings are more confident, I’m recognizing a few patterns, although my endgame play is poor. Slowly but surely, I’m getting better. 

But I wondered where I could find people nearby to play. Luckily the internet can help with that too. Friday night I checked out the Arlington Chess Club.

I did not know what to expect. I read on the club’s website I needed my own equipment, so I walked in with a chess board, pieces, and clock. When I arrived there were three players huddled around a board. They were attempting to solve a puzzle they saw on a chess website that morning. To the side, one gentleman was posting matchups for that night’s games.

I introduced myself as a relatively new player. He was welcoming but honest. They don’t do casual games. If you join the national association and local club you can play on Friday nights. One game lasting approximately four hours.

Woah. When I play online I play with time controls, five or ten minutes per player. I can’t imagine playing a game for four hours. 

I’m not even sure I want to. My goal is to practice chess and get better. In four hours, I could play twelve games online. 

I hung out for about an hour, watched the start of these marathon games, thanked them for their time and headed out. On the bright side, they referred me to another group in the area that is more casual. 

We’ll see if I stick with this long enough to be up for a four hour game.

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Predicting the 2018-19 NBA Season

Just in time for the NBA season to kick off tomorrow, I have projected win totals for each team. Below you will find my predictions for each team alongside latest Vegas odds. I’ve also included the difference between my predictions and the Vegas line, as well as the absolute value of the differences. Below the tables you’ll find my team by team thoughts. Here’s to hoping I do better than last season, with a median difference between prediction and actual wins of 6.

Western Conference

  1. Golden State Warriors (55) I’m nervous with how low this prediction is, but there are two important factors to consider. First, the West is going to be a bloodbath this season. Only the Kings are outright terrible. Second, we have seen this team prioritize the postseason which makes sense given the injury history of stars like Curry and Durant.
  2. Houston Rockets (53) Their roster got a bit weaker. Also, last year they were gunning to show their dominance and win Harden an MVP. This year, look for them to also prioritize postseason health.
  3. Utah Jazz (49) The Jazz looked great last postseason and sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell should only improve. 
  4. San Antonio Spurs (48) Yes, I factored in Dejounte Murray’s season-ending injury. The question for the Spurs is what can they get out of DeMar DeRozan? 
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder (47) Simply getting rid of Carmelo should be a net positive for the Thunder. However, they have a few reasons for concern. First, Russell Westbrook relies heavily on athleticism but is turning 30 next month. Second, Andre Roberson has apparently suffered a setback in his injury recovery. Having Roberson on the court is essential to their defense which is essential to the Thunder being an elite team. 
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves (45) I took Jimmy Butler off the Timberwolves but I did not put him on another team, which will almost certainly create problems at season’s end. I also gave Wiggins a small boost to his production in the season before Butler came to Minnesota.
  7. Denver Nuggets (44) This is a nice young team with plenty of players poised to improve: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris. Having Paul Millsap back from injury will be a nice boost to possibly get them into the playoffs this year. If Jokic does not improve on defense, they could be in trouble.
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (43) The Pelicans looked phenomenal in the playoffs against the Trailblazers. They are basically bringing back that squad with an added Julius Randle, who should be a great addition.
  9. Los Angeles Lakers (42) Yes, right now I have a LeBron team missing the playoffs. By a game.  I could see them as high as fourth if you look at how tight these win projections are. I think we’re all curious how this team will look given how differently they are built than the LeBron Cavaliers. I think their recent pickups of Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, and Javale McGee are suspect.
  10. Portland Trailblazers (41) I think Damian Lillard had a phenomenal season but it was also a career year. Look for him to regress a bit without any strong steps forward from the rest of this squad.
  11. Dallas Mavericks (38) Luca Doncic is going to be an NBA star, but this team is a few years away from competing. 
  12. Los Angeles Clippers (34) I’m still not sure how the Clippers performed as well as did last season and it’s possible I’m missing something here. But I don’t think this team is quite good enough to compete in an excellent Western Conference. 
  13. Memphis Grizzlies (33) The Grizzlies seem to think they’ll be competitive with Mike Conley and Marc Gasol healthy but I’m not so sure. My money is on this team struggling and then the front office breaks things up.
  14. Phoenix Suns (26) Another team operating under delusions of grandeur, they have some nice young players but will struggle for a few more seasons. Look for them to shoot themselves in the foot by making an ill-advised trade for a veteran point guard.
  15. Sacramento Kings (25) The Kings are bad. Marvin Bagley might be a good NBA player but I doubt he’ll be better than Doncic.

Eastern Conference

  1. Toronto Raptors (62) Take a 59 win team, swap out DeMar DeRozan for Kawhi Leonard, and remove LeBron from the conference. That sounds like 3 more wins to me. If Leonard’s injury is not resolved this won’t happen, but all signs indicate he will be ready to go this week. 
  2. Boston Celtics (55) One of my biggest problems last season was accurately predicting the performance of young players improving their skills. I attempted to tackle that with these young Celtics stars but I will not be shocked if they outperform this projection.
  3. Philadelphia 76ers (54) See my above comment given the number of young stars in Philadelphia. I’m not expecting great things from Markelle Fultz although I think he’ll be a positive contributor. It’s always fair to question the health of Joel Embiid, too.
  4. Indiana Pacers (51) So long as Victor Oladipo doesn’t serously regress, this team should be real good. Tyreke Evans is a great addition for them.
  5. Milwaukee Bucks (50) I am really struggling with how to appropriately factor in the huge coaching upgrade from Jason Kidd to Mike Budenholzer. Based on preseason games, which we should take with a grain of salt, Giannis Antetokounmpo looks like a leading MVP candidate.
  6. Washington Wizards (48) If there is one thing I feel confident predicting, it is that the Wizards will have locker room troubles. We have seen it before from teams lead by John Wall and it is basically guarantee when Dwight Howard comes to town. I’m curious to see how Thomas Satoransky compared to last year as a fill-in starter when Wall was injured. 
  7. Miami Heat (43) I am tempted to project the Heat trading for Jimmy Butler but that’s not looking like a done deal. The Heat look stuck in just-above-mediocrity. They have lots of good players, but not a single very good one. 
  8. Brooklyn Nets (39) I am feeling a bit uneasy about how I have the Nets. But it’s worth considering how most analysts love the Nets style, particularly their shooting profile, they just have lacked the talent to date. In a weak Eastern Conference, they have a chance to be competitive. 
  9. Detroit Pistons (35) Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin looked surprisingly good on the court together. But its still not a very effective roster makeup and they’re going to struggle to score. I’m not giving a boost for regular season master coach Dwayne Casey, who could push them at least into the playoffs.
  10. Charlotte Hornets (35) I want to see Kemba Walker on a roster where the second best player is better than Jeremy Lamb! 
  11. Cleveland Cavaliers (30) I don’t see how Kevin Love is a successful first option in today’s NBA. Minnesota Kevin Love was bigger and able to bully guys around in the post. After getting into shape to be a corner 3 threat for LeBron, this is going to be a rough adjustment. They also like a decent point guard which has a multiplying negative effect.
  12. Orlando Magic (27) The Magic are struggling. Who will win games for them? D.J. Augustin? Nikola Vucevic? They’ve got Aaron Gordon I guess. Oh and this factors in Mo Bamba as a decent rookie.
  13. Chicago Bulls (27) The Bulls have some reasons for optimism, just a few years into the future. They have made a number of poor decisions recently, such as picking up Jabari Parker and signing Zach Lavine for too much money.
  14. New York Knicks (27) I would have them a bit higher if Kristaps Porzingis was healthy. Until then, they’ll be relying on Enes Kanter (who looked surprisingly good last season) and Tim Hardaway Jr. Just not good enough. 
  15. Atlanta Hawks (25) Trae Young will likely have a handful of games where he goes crazy but for the most part he will struggle. I have John Collins and Alex Len as their best players. Yeah, they are going to be bad.

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Analytics

One challenge I face in working in analytics is people commonly misunderstand analytics. It seems to stem from a misunderstanding of what data is.

Data is just information.

When you think of data, you probably think of numbers. Lots and lots of numbers, maybe in a spreadsheet. And when you think of analytics, I’m guessing you think of complicated equations and graphs.

That’s a good start, but it is a very incomplete picture. Data, or information, comes in many shapes and sizes.

Analytics, in my mind, is simply the use of data to answer questions.

In basketball, there are often debates between the analytics approach and the eye test approach. The analytics approach focuses on how a player looks on the stats sheet: shooting percentage or effective field goal percentage. The eye test approach focuses on how a player looks on the court: their skill set or confidence.

I think the eye test is just one form of analytics. And the observations an analyst or fan makes (how is the player with the ball in their hands? how is their court vision? how is their shooting form?) are data.

And yet, most people distinguish between “analytics” and common analytical practices like the eye test. Why?

There are two elements that come to my mind about what distinguishes “analytics”:

  • Focus on the questions to be answered
  • Standardized data
Does the eye test include these factors? Well, not usually. So maybe I’m overselling it to say that’s analytics. But I think it certainly can be. 
One of the most important books in the analytics realm is How to Measure Anything. It is a classic resource for advice on how to measure the, well, seemingly unmeasureable. 

The eye test has a high degree of subjectivity. Different observers will have different and biased observations even of the same player. But there are a number of steps you can take, such as a grading rubric or a peer review system, to standardize the observation data. 
When it comes to focusing on the questions to be answered, you might need to use different systems for answering different questions. How you compare two basketball players of the same age at the same position may differ from how you compare two basketball players at different positions. Or two players from different eras. But you will need some clear system for standardizing and comparing your data. 
I’m using examples from basketball because I spend a lot of time thinking about basketball analytics and it’s a more accessible example than most examples from my job. But I encounter a lot of this at work as well. My colleagues will think that the analytics team is separate from their work. 
A successful analytics team needs to seek out their colleagues’ own “eye tests” and incorporate that data for value-producing organization-wide analytics.