I used to believe that people don’t change their political beliefs after 30. Well, I didn’t believe that statement completely. But I did believe that people don’t change their primary worldview or core political ideology, and rarely changed their views on particular stances. My mind on this has changed a bit (hey, I’m under 30!)
I still think worldviews are pretty stuck at 30. I can’t remember the last time I saw a radical change in the beliefs of someone I knew over 30, especially compared to how common it is for young adults. And I have seen a number of young adults who have a handful of radical changes before they hit their settling point.
But policy views are more flexible. While this will be good news to some people, my initial reading of is a bit depressing. My observation here fits with Jonathan Haidt’s book The Righteous Mind. Basically, beliefs work like this: people organize into groups based on their foundational beliefs (which, it seems, are at least partially driven by neurology). These foundational beliefs lead to intuitions towards particular issues, around which people form justifications to defend their beliefs. This is in contrast to the more standard understanding: people use evidence and logic to create arguments.
Basically, we decide our view on a specific issue, and create a rationalization to back it up.
I think this is pretty evident if you look at American politics today. You have Democrats praising the FBI while Republicans condemn it. I’m struck by the similar shift on free trade. I’m skeptical these were the result of sober, thoughtful reflection. The existing tribes, which have already organized around foundational beliefs, have seen their allies shift. Now they are changing up their policy stances to defend their allies.
This isn’t all bad news. If you are like me and want to see political and social change in the world, this means there is hope for activism and change. People over 30 can change their views. But presenting sound logical arguments may not be a very effective method. The question is, what is?