The 2017-2018 NBA season begins tomorrow night! Here are my predictions for how many games each team will win this season. Below is my expected wins for each team, the Vegas line, and the difference between my prediction and the line.
Teams I am really high on: Timberwolves, Cavaliers, Knicks, Rockets, and Hawks.
Teams I am really low on: Lakers, Trailblazers, Celtics, Bucks, Clippers, Grizzlies, Pistons, Spurs.
Golden State Warriors (67) Same historical greatness, snooze. They’re probably better than last year, too.
Cleveland Cavaliers (62) They absolutely won the trade with Boston and will not miss Kyrie. The only question is how many games will Thomas play in.
Minnesota Timberwolves (60) This is probably a bug in my model, but it’s worth keeping in mind that Towns and Butler are both elite and Wiggins is no slouch.
Houston Rockets (60) I’m suspicious of the Chris Paul pickup but this roster is really talented and D’Antoni is one of the best coaches in the NBA.
Oklahoma City Thunder (53) They had a huge offseason and are going to be much, much better than last year but Carmelo probably won’t add that many wins.
San Antonio Spurs (50) Of teams in the top I think the Spurs are most dependent on their star, if Kawhi misses extended time they could be in serious trouble.
Washington Wizards (48) IMO the best of this 3-way tie, I think they’ll actually make it to the Conference Finals. The Frazier addition at backup PG should be a quiet but big win.
Toronto Raptors (48) They will do the same old thing, which may frustrate their fanbase, but they’ll feast on the East and fight for the 2 seed.
Boston Celtics (48) So I have a 3-way tie here and I get that looks like a cop out but that’s just what the machines tell me to predict. But for Boston I’m low on Kyrie and they’ll play a lot of young players. Horford is a regression candidate.
Denver Nuggets (47) This team is young and exciting and plays amazing offense but that’s only enough to get you the 6 seed in the West. Look for the 6th best offense but 22nd defense.
Utah Jazz (43) People will tune in to Jazz games and have no other option than to recognize Gobert is the best defensive player in the NBA. 43 feels high but they’ll likely just feed on weak Eastern Conference teams.
Charlotte Hornets (43) He may not look that great this season but I’m really high on Malik Monk, I think he’ll be the best player from this draft.
Miami Heat (43) The team profile they have created for themselves is an incredibly deep roster full of professional NBA players worth playing but none of them are even remotely a household name.
New Orleans Pelicans (42) The great Twin Towers experiment will continue to be so-so and the Rondo addition will be a disaster for both him and Cousins.
Milwaukee Bucks (41) Giannis is an MVP candidate but they will dearly miss Paker. Also I think Brogdon is a dark horse regression candidate.
Los Angeles Clippers (38) Small ball has become so ingrained in how I view the NBA that I think of the Clippers and I think “who do they even have?” The answer is Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordon, the question is are they valuable without Chris Paul or not.
New York Knicks (37) This team is probably a dumpster fire but Carmelo leaving is probably a good thing, Porzingis is really good, and there are a handful of other teams in the East that are worse.
Dallas Mavericks (36) I really don’t have anything to say about the Mavs. Dennis Smith?
Philadelphia 76ers (35) Ok the hype for this team is way overblown. I think Simmons will look great except for shooting, Fultz will be a serviceable disaster, and Embiid will look amazing in 45 games. If he plays over 60 I think he wins MVP.
Portland Trailblazers (35) I bet they wish they could trade conferences with the Raptors. They’re basically the Raptors except they pay Even Turner $16 million (ouch).
Detroit Pistons (34) Drummond is going to be about as impactful as Joakim Noah in two season at this piace. Reggie Jackson will be improved from last year, though.
Indiana Pacers (33) So they absolutely flunked the Paul George sweepstakes and my cynical take is they wanted Oladipo to sell tickets because Indiana. They’ll be bad but Oladipo and Turner is a decent enough pair compared to some of the teams below they’ll avoid being a dumpster fire.
Memphis Grizzlies (32) I can’t really figure out what the Grizzlies are trying to accomplish, I am suspicious they are making a serious effort at winning basketball games.
Orlando Magic (31) On the other hand the Grizzlies could be so, so much worse. They’ll lose lots of games by 5, 6 points but the Magic will get blown out night in and night out. This roster is so bad and I want to see Aaron Gordon play somewhere else already.
Phoenix Suns (29) The 76ers of the West, they are building up a decent arsenal of young talent that could have an impact in four years.
Atlanta Hawks (27) Bad without impressive assets, I guess they just have to be glad of the plague that is Dwight Howard.
Brooklyn Nets (26) They have no incentive to tank but after losing Brook Lopez, their current roster is going to struggle to win games. My model is probably underestimating Russell’s positive impact, but only slightly, and while I’m high on that pickup I’m low on the Crabbe addition.
Sacramento Kings (25) There is no real difference maker on this team, Buddy Hield will probably be their best player.
Chicago Bulls (24) Please kill me.
Los Angeles Lakers (23) I get that they have a large, rabid, media-connected fanbase but my goodness is this hype train out of control or what? This roster is bad, they have nobody who can shoot, and Lonzo is going to be a great NBA player just not this season.