Theresa May gambled and lost. When Brexit was unexpectedly passed by voters, May saw a political opportunity and rode to power as Prime Minister by shifting from opposition to support of Brexit. It appeared as though she would benefit from this populist wave in the UK for years to come.
This was just the first of some surprise populist electoral victories in recent years. We of course saw Donald Trump elected President. In France, voters discarded the major right-wing and major left-wing parties forcing a general election between center-left Macron and the populist ethno-nationalist right candidate Le Pen. I even think the surprising rise of Socialist Corbyn taking away May’s majority in the UK fits the trend.
What is the trend that explains the rise of both right-wing Donald Trump and left-wing Jeremy Corbyn? I think it’s the middle finger. Seriously! People are angry. Trust in government is low. What we are seeing is an era in which voters are more willing than ever to reject whoever is currently in office. Step into the ballot box, raise your middle finger, rinse and repeat. That’s how you end up with Theresa May possibly being the shortest-serving Prime Minister in history (we shall see).
I constantly encounter the assumption that populism is synonymous with a set of policy changes, particularly opposition to free trade or immigration along with support for nationalism. This exaggerates the importance of policy within politics. Voters are rationally ignorant. Political stances are often attempts to signal and boost one’s status. Because most people have so little ability to actually change the outcome, politics is closer to a professional sports game than it is to an actual conversation on governance.
This populist wave isn’t about bringing coal jobs back to West Virginia or a “hard Brexit” over a “soft Brexit.” It’s about using one’s vote to say “I’m angry” (to the small degree that voting allows you to make a statement). If you are surprised that Donald Trump’s base continues to support him even though he hasn’t delivered on his campaign promises like a border wall, repealing Obamacare, and tax reform, look elsewhere. He has delivered, just outside of policy. He makes left-wingers mad and he has damaged the media’s reputation. These are the non-policy desires of angry voters.
This trend is good news and bad news for libertarians. We are living in an era of Big Government (in the US I’d argue since FDR) and if voters want a change, libertarianism could be that change. But keep in mind my main point here, politics is rarely about policy. A libertarian campaign likely won’t be about libertarian policy, which is uncomfortable for most libertarians. On the other hand, there is evidence suggesting that low trust in the government is dangerously harmful for society. The erosion of institutional trust can lead to authoritarian populism.
As a footnote, I have seen many pundits take away from May’s recent failure that British voters support a soft Brexit over a hard Brexit. Maybe they do, maybe the don’t. Regardless, I don’t think a policy distinction should be your first assumption about the motivating factor. Look elsewhere.