Is the libertarian moment over? Did it ever even begin? Jerry Taylor, President of the Niskanen Center, argues that libertarianism as a political ideology is struggling in the United States. “The collapse of Rand Paul”, Taylor argues, shows just how little public support is out there for libertarianism. Taylor’s argument is in direct contrast with speculation that the U.S. has been approaching a possible “libertarian moment”.
I agree with Taylor regarding the present and short-term future. Rand Paul, the most libertarian candidate in the current U.S. Presidential race, is drawing anemic poll numbers despite a slew of press pieces pointing out his unique views within the Republican field. I don’t predict the number of libertarian public officials or policies to significantly increase in the next five years. Those political outcomes are the result of the interest group jockying within the constraints of the “Overton Window” of public policy. The current state of opinion is not very libertarian.
I don’t think the collapse of Rand Paul’s polling numbers tell us much about the full political prospects of libertarianism. While Rand Paul is arguably the most libertarian member of the Republican field, there is a legitimate case to be made that his campaign would be in better position if he branded himself as more of a libertarian. Jacob Sullum argues Rand Paul is not very libertarian on drug policy. This year Paul proposed a 16 percent increase to the defense budget. Ed Crane wants to know why Rand Paul has stopped using his libertarian views to distinguish himself.
This is no “no true Scotsman” defense of libertarianism. For the record, I think no true libertarian can be elected President of the United States right now. How close a candidate can get to electoral success, however, we can’t judge from Rand Paul. Take it from the man himself, he’s “not a libertarian”.
More importantly, Taylor fails to address the most promising (for libertarians) input into the American Overton Window: young people. Self-identified libertarians are a larger share of the population among young people. A YouGov poll found that 20% of millenials identify as libertarians, higher than the 15% figure across all demographics. This isn’t an earth-shattering shift, but it is a trend in the right direction for libertarians. Political beliefs at the start of adulthood tend to hold relatively steady throughout one’s lifetime. Ray Fisman found evidence of this political inertia at least within the confines of the two-party system. If this is indeed true, the growing contingent of young libertarians should hold during the lifetimes of millenials.
One more thought: Taylor rightfully points out that the candidate of choice for “libertarian-inclined Republicans is Donald Trump, the least libertarian candidate in the race”. A large portion of this can likely be explained by sad but harsh truths to libertarians: many of the libertarian-inclined Republicans are probably not very libertarian and this demographic may be more concerned with race than we would like to think. But don’t discount the desire of many libertarians to see the (political) world burn. Donald Trump is political kerosene right now.